Retailers last month posted their first uptick in sales in more than a year as the crucial holiday shopping season draws near.

Although concerns remain about consumers' willingness to spend, retail sales in September turned out better than expected: Major department stores J.C. Penney, Macy's and Nordstrom beat analysts' expectations, while some chains including Kohl's, TJX and Ross posted healthy increases.

The news helped push the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 61.29 points, or 0.6 percent, to 9,786.87.

Some economists say that if stocks hold up and the housing and job markets don't worsen, Christmas holiday sales could surprise on the upside. If consumers are beginning to spend again, companies might start to hire, which could help speed a recovery.

"Most companies are very worried about consumers, and they've been reluctant to hire and invest because they believe consumers will trounce the economic recovery," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University in San Diego. "If they see signs that consumers are coming out of their holes, they'll be more encouraged."

Whether September's sales will be part of a trend is not clear. The increase over 2008 was just 0.6 percent — and last year sales plunged amid the shock of a financial meltdown.

In addition, Labor Day fell further into September this year, pushing more back-to-school spending into the month. Nationally, consumer confidence has ticked higher in recent weeks, but rising unemployment and tight credit have kept many potential spenders on the sidelines.

"We don't think retailers are out of the woods by any stretch," said Ken Perkins, president of research company Retail Metrics Inc. Largely because of the later Labor Day and delayed start dates for schools around the country, September numbers were inflated by about 3 to 4 percentage points, he said.

"There's no clear-cut sign yet that consumers are opening up their purse strings."

After last year's dismal performance, another grim Christmas would be devastating for retailers, leading to business bankruptcies, higher mall vacancy rates and store closures.

But it would have even greater implications for the broader financial picture: With consumer spending accounting for about 70 percent of economic activity, a turnaround hinges on shoppers' willingness to turn out and spend freely.

So as merchants bring out the holiday merchandise, they are expected to offer deep discounts to attract wary consumers. They're also hiring fewer seasonal workers and cutting back on inventory.

The National Retail Federation projected this week that sales during the November-December period would fall 1 percent, to $437.6 billion, compared with a year ago.

That's significantly worse than the 10-year average of 3.4 percent holiday season growth.

"We know that a lot of Americans will be pulling back on the holiday season because they have to," Ellen Davis, the retail trade group's vice president, said.

"This will be the holiday season of the blue jean instead of the Blu-ray."