The slow pace of the global economic recovery means Hawai'i can't expect a speedy rebound either, according to a new forecast.

The report from the University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization says some smaller Asian economies are leading a rebound, but that larger nations, notably the U.S. and Japan, will have less growth.

"The anticipated slow pace of global growth will likely mean a sub-par recovery for Hawai'i," said the report being released today. The forecast concentrates on global economics and is a predecessor to one focusing solely on Hawai'i that will be released next month.

"The tepid outlook for U.S. and global recovery will limit the pace of Hawai'i's visitor industry recovery."

The report noted that lingering problems in the financial sector could weigh on the velocity of the state's return from a recession, but that a bright spot exists in the weakness of the U.S. dollar and the possibility that a stronger yen will result in higher Japanese tourist spending.

Local economists have said that Hawai'i's climb out of an economic downturn will be keyed by a rebound in the state's leading industry, tourism.

There has been some good news with monthly tourist arrivals starting to rise from last year's depressed levels. But spending is still declining as hotels offer room discounts and visitors crimp vacation spending.

"Growth has also returned to the U.S. and Japan, but the depth of the decline, lost household wealth, and lingering credit problems mean that full recovery will take a number of years," the UHERO forecast said.

The report noted there is evidence that the U.S. recession has ended, but that consumer spending remains weak and unemployment will continue to rise in the next year.

UHERO forecast the U.S. gross domestic product will fall by 2.5 percent this year and rise by 2.4 percent next.

In Japan, the story is a similar one.

"Japan will benefit from rebounding Asian export demand, but trade with the U.S. and Europe will be limited by tepid growth in those regions," the report said. It projected Japan's gross domestic product will shrink 5.5 percent this year and be followed next year with a 2.2 percent gain.