Yet another forecast predicts Hawai'i won't come roaring back from a stubborn economic downturn, projecting only lackluster gains next year followed by modest growth in 2011.

Hawai'i's Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism yesterday released an update of its economic projections, saying the poor national economy is continuing to cast a shadow over the state, as is diminished spending by visitors on hotel rooms, souvenirs and meals.

"Assuming continued improvement in national and international economic conditions, modest growth in the state's economy is forecast to return by 2011," DBEDT said in announcing the newest forecast.

"The visitor arrival count is forecast to increase by 4.1 percent in 2011, with visitor expenditures up 8.8 percent."

The DBEDT forecast presents a mixed picture, noting that some economic indicators have continued to worsen in recent months and saying that the picture remains muddled into next year.

The state lowered its visitor-spending projections this year, saying it now believes they will fall by about an eighth of what they were last year. More jobs will be lost this year than previously believed — a 3.3 percent decline compared with the 3.0 percent drop it had projected earlier.

SIMILAR PREDICTIONS

Other forecasts released recently cite many of the same trends, and say Hawai'i's recovery will be stuck in first gear for most of next year, with some trends improving and others still mired in a downturn.

Both Leroy Laney and Paul Brewbaker, economic advisers to First Hawaiian Bank and Bank of Hawaii, respectively, have said people should expect the malaise to persist into the first half of next year.

They say this should be followed by a slow improvement in the second six months of 2010.

"Hawai'i's economy is expected to see some improvements in 2010 and modest growth by 2011," the DBEDT forecast says.

The state forecast projects a 2 percent rise in tourists will occur in 2010 and come on the heels of two years of setbacks in the visitor count.

That's an increase from what it previously saw when it released its August forecast.

But the state lowered its expectations when it comes to 2010 visitor spending, saying it no longer believes an almost-3-percent gain will occur and instead predicted the expenditure total will be flat compared with this year.

Job counts and unemployment typically are some of the last indicators to recover from recessions since employers are hesitant to hire until they are certain conditions have improved.

The forecast predicts 2010 will be the third straight year of job losses for the state. It sees jobs falling by almost 1 percent.

Better news is reserved for 2011 and 2012, when a more pronounced climb out of the recession is seen and jobs begin increasing again.

Personal income adjusted for inflation is projected to grow again after three years of declines and stagnation, while in 2011 jobs will increase after a trio of annual declines.

STATE GDP GROWTH

The state's gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic health, is seen as rising steadily after falling by 1.1 percent this year.

In 2010, it is forecast to grow by 0.8 percent and be followed by bigger gains in the next two years.

"Beyond 2010, the gradual recovery is expected to continue with modest job growth of around 0.8 percent for 2011," the state forecast says.

"Visitor arrivals should show a healthier, 4.1 percent increase in 2011. Hawai'i's real GDP (gross domestic product adjusted for inflation) growth in 2001 is expected to reach 1.3 percent.

"This gradual recovery will continue into 2012, assuming national and international economic conditions continue to improve."