ST. LOUIS — The Cardinals see leftfielder Matt Holliday as a unique talent within this year’s free agent pool, and they apparently do not envision themselves as bidders for the market’s presumptive second choice should Holliday defect.

General manager John Mozeliak confirmed Tuesday that the Cardinals’ priority signing would shift away from offense if Holliday proves too pricey for the club to retain.
“We’ll see how the market develops,” Mozeliak said. “Is (Jason Bay) a possibility? Sure. But right now it’s fair to say he’s not one of our top priorities.”
The Cardinals have yet to submit a formal bid to Holliday’s agent, Scott Boras, and are unlikely to do so until free agents can begin accepting bids from all clubs on Saturday. The Cardinals continue to view Holliday as their offseason priority but have also constructed alternatives with starting pitching, not hitting, as a centerpiece.
The club’s stance regarding Bay contradicts a popular perception that the ex-Pittsburgh Pirates and Boston Red Sox left fielder offered an obvious, less expensive fallback to Holliday while illustrating a shift in how the club evaluates talent. The Cardinals long coveted Bay, then with the Pirates, during Walt Jocketty’s tenure as general manager. But Jocketty’s ouster ushered in greater reliance on quantitative analysis, which in many cases trumps scouting.
Bay’s offensive numbers parallel Holliday’s in the last five seasons, but numerous defensive “metrics” insist Bay is far inferior defensively.
Bay, 31, hit .267 with a career-most 36 home runs and 119 RBI last season for the Red Sox, earning him recognition as an All-Star and a Silver Slugger recipient. Bay has managed at least 31 home runs, 101 runs and 101 RBI in four of the last five seasons.
Belief persists that Bay is likely to return to the Red Sox for a minimum four-year deal worth more than $16 million annually.
Beyond Holliday and Bay the market offers few power options within the outfield. The Cardinals remain more intrigued by another ex-Pirate, Xavier Nady, who is coming off a second elbow ligament transplant.
Losing out on Holliday would also cause Mozeliak to re-evaluate his October stance regarding rookie David Freese. Mozeliak said he thought Freese deserved first chance as next season’s starting third baseman. Absent Holliday, the Cardinals may seek a more proven commodity at a traditional power position.
Free agency is not the only option available as Mozeliak concedes the club may also pursue trade options. The Cardinals heavily scouted the Washington Nationals before last July’s trade deadline and retain interest in outfielders Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham. Dunn, who has averaged 41 home runs and 101 RBIs the last six seasons, is entering the final season of a two-year deal that pays him $12 million in 2010.
Mozeliak admits this year’s pitching market is short on star power but believes its depth meshes with the organization’s desire for a complementary starter to slot behind Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse.
“There are some starters out there we find intriguing,” Mozeliak said. “I also think there are some starters available via trade. Overall, it’s probably fair to say the market doesn’t offer the big brand names that we saw a year ago, but it does offer pitchers that allow you flexibility. Our other guys are signed long term, so I see that as a benefit.”
The financially distressed Detroit Tigers continue to dangle arbitration-eligible Edwin Jackson, who is coming off a 13-9 season in which he compiled a 3.62 ERA in 214 innings.
The Atlanta Braves also have a surplus of starting pitching after signing Tim Hudson to a three-year extension last week.
The Cardinals will weigh offering arbitration to their own free agent starting pitcher, Joel Pineiro, but remain leery of his pursuit of a three-year deal probably worth around $10 million a season.
Mozeliak has stayed in touch with representatives for free agent John Smoltz but may explore other options first.
Smoltz, 42, informed interested clubs he prefers to start next season. Any consideration of the future Hall of Famer must weigh shoulder problems that required surgery in 2008 and a brief shutdown following his August arrival in St. Louis. Smoltz does fit the club’s desire for a short-term fix.