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U.S. economy still weak, but a bit more stable

By Martin Crutsinger
Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Despite weak performances in three areas — trade, home sales and job openings — the U.S. economy appears closer to stabilizing, though at low levels, economists said.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit widened to $27.6 billion in March, from February's revised $26.1 billion gap, which had been the smallest since November 1999.

Through the first three months of this year, the trade deficit ran at an annual rate of $359.7 billion, far below last year's $681.1 billion. Economists expect the deficit will remain low this year as the U.S. recession crimps demand for foreign goods.

The global downturn also has cut into sales of U.S. exports. That could limit any improvement in the trade gap, which reflects the higher value of America's imports compared with its exports.

For March, exports of goods and services fell 2.4 percent to $123.6 billion. That was the lowest level since August 2006. Sales of farm products dropped $2.4 billion, while exports of capital goods slid $1.7 billion, led by big declines in sales of civilian aircraft, telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, and domestic autos and auto parts.

U.S. imports also fell, but analysts said the minor drops pointed to a leveling-off point, rather than future declines.

"The composition of exports suggest that the global economy is beginning to stabilize," Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, wrote in a research note. "The steepest export declines are behind us."

With the U.S. recession expected to last until the second half of this year and the downturn in other nations expected to drag into 2010, economists don't expect a big rebound in trade anytime soon.

Meanwhile, home prices in the U.S. also continue to fall, though that has prompted sales gains in a handful of states. The National Association of Realtors said median sales prices of existing homes declined in 134 out of 152 metropolitan areas compared with the same period a year ago. Nationwide, sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties made up about half the market.

"I think we're near a bottom, but we're not there yet," said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities. While prices could hit bottom as soon as this summer, he said, they are likely to remain stable and start edging higher slowly.

But the nascent signs of recovery in the housing market could be short-lived if employers lay off more workers in bulk.

There were 2.7 million jobs available nationwide in March, down from 3 million in February and 4 million a year ago, the Labor Department said yesterday. That's the fewest in the eight years the department has tracked job openings.

Other recent reports indicate that while layoffs may be slowing compared with the waves announced earlier this year, hiring hasn't picked up much since the department gathered the job openings data in March.

Many economists say the unemployment rate, which hit 8.9 percent in April, will climb to around 10 percent even if the recession ends and a recovery begins this fall.

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