CHARLOTTE, N.C. — There's plenty of smoke in the air involving a possible trade of Julius Peppers to the New England Patriots, but is there fire?

And what's really going on?

It's likely that no one — even those most closely involved — know for certain where the Peppers saga is headed, but we'll try to analyze the most likely possibilities here:

First of all, other teams are inquiring about Peppers despite the fact that he bears the Panthers' franchise tag.

"I have talked to general managers of other teams in the NFL and there is interest in Julius," Carl Carey, Peppers' agent, told the Charlotte Observer on Tuesday night.

Carey declined to identify those teams.

Despite the interest, it will be difficult to get a perfect match that lands Peppers with one of the four teams on his preferred list, with a satisfactory contract for him and trade compensation acceptable to Carolina.

As a result, the percentages still strongly favor Peppers playing with the Panthers next season under a one year-tender of $16.683 million.

The Panthers consistently have said they want to keep Peppers. They're not going to let him go at a bargain price, certainly not a mere second-round pick (34th overall) as suggested Monday in an NFL.com report.

Carolina officials would have preferred Peppers not saying he wanted to leave in the first place, but he remains the anchor of their defensive line and it would be extremely hard to replace him with anyone comparable to his abilities.

As for the huge amount he'd count against their 2009 salary cap, remember that he counted almost $14 million against their cap last year, so it's not anything they're not used to or haven't planned for.

They would not have given him the one-year tender if they weren't willing to stand by it. Their entire philosophy is to draft well and, if that happens, keep their core players long-term. That includes Peppers, even at the high price.

The Panthers should not be — and almost certainly aren't — close-minded about trading Peppers if a substantial offer becomes available.

This is an organization that has a history of keeping all reasonable options open, and that's no different now. But "reasonable" doesn't mean charitable. General manager Marty Hurney and owner Jerry Richardson aren't about to let an elite player get away for anything less than top value.

Any deal they'd even consider probably would have to approach what Minnesota gave Kansas City last year for franchised defensive end Jared Allen — a first-round pick and two third-rounders.

If Peppers is traded, the best guess here is that it will be either to New England or Philadelphia.

A source close to Peppers acknowledged that he is interested in New England, making the Patriots and Dallas the only identified teams in his "Big Four."

The Patriots play a 3-4 defense, which intrigues Peppers, and have lots of draft ammunition to use if they choose. They have a first-round pick and three second-rounders, including the 34th overall selection.

Philadelphia also makes sense. The Eagles have a traditionally strong and creative defense, and they need help at defensive end. Plus, they have the cap room and two first-round picks in this year's draft—the 21st and the 28th, the latter obtained from Carolina last year in the trade that allowed the Panthers to draft tackle Jeff Otah in the '08 first round.

Philadelphia runs a 4-3 defense, but Peppers has said he's not wed to playing in a 3-4. What he wants most is to be in a system that he believes will put him in position to be at his disruptive best as a pass rusher and playmaker.

Though we haven't confirmed that Philadelphia is one of Peppers' four teams, it is known that the two other teams after the Patriots and Cowboys are in the NFC—but not the NFC South. The Eagles play in the NFC East.

As for the Cowboys, it's very hard to imagine Peppers landing there. Dallas has limited cap room and is trying to negotiate a new contract to make all-pro outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware the highest paid defensive player in the league.

The notion that Peppers will be miserably unhappy if he plays for Carolina again is grossly exaggerated. Even if he doesn't get what he wants, he can stay next season and earn more than $1 million a game.

Plus, even though the Panthers aren't his first choice, they're not last either.