HOW WINDY WAS IT?
Blustery but not a big deal
By Mary Vorsino
Advertiser Staff Writer
Though the cold front that blew over O'ahu yesterday didn't pack the 60 mph gusts forecasters had feared, it did bring some blustery conditions, a few heavy showers and a big warning from emergency responders: Just because this storm didn't live up to predictions doesn't mean the next one won't.
"Next time, we could get it bad. This time, thankfully, we had no major problems," said John Cummings, city Department of Emergency Management spokesman. "The bottom line is we want everybody to be safe."
The National Weather Service had warned residents to be prepared for gusts upward of 60 mph on O'ahu and Kaua'i as the storm made its way over the islands yesterday morning. That warning prompted public schools and many private schools to cancel classes. Non- essential state and city workers were told to stay home because the winds were expected to hit during rush hour.
But by mid-morning yesterday, the 60 mph gusts still hadn't materialized and forecasters canceled a high-wind warning for O'ahu and Kaua'i at 10 a.m.
National Weather Service forecasters said they are concerned that because the storm didn't pan out to be as bad as they predicted, residents will perhaps not heed future weather warnings.
"It's definitely not as bad as we thought it was going to be. That's good news," said Robert Ballard, the National Weather Service's Honolulu science and operations officer. "But I know a lot of people thought, 'OK, what was the big deal?' We hope that this event won't cause people to not listen next time."
Ballard added that forecasting is not a "perfect science."
"We're not going to hit every forecast exactly right," he said.
The highest winds recorded yesterday fell about 10 mph short of the warning levels. Schofield Barracks saw gusts of about 49 mph, and Kane'ohe saw gusts upward of 41 mph. Kahului Airport also saw gusts of 49 mph.
Maj. Gen. Robert Lee, state adjutant general and the head of state Civil Defense, said forecasters can predict storm outcomes with good — but not exact — accuracy. He added that all indications pointed to O'ahu getting a severe wallop from the storm that rolled through yesterday. "We prepared for 65 mph (gusts)," he said.
Lee added, "Actually, 49 mph is high enough in my book."
To be sure, plenty of spots got some strong gusts yesterday, especially Windward O'ahu. Still, no major damage was reported and firefighters got just one call for assistance with a damaged roof. On Thursday, firefighters got 12 calls from people whose roofs had been damaged. Most were in Kane'ohe.
Yesterday's wind is also likely to blame for several power outages. The biggest was in Kailua, and affected about 7,500 customers from 1 to 3:50 a.m., with some 60 customers not back on line until 10:20 a.m. There was also a small outage reported in Kunia and another in Hawai'i Kai.
Civil defense officials reported little damage on Kaua'i.
Mark Marshall, administrator of Kaua'i Civil Defense, said he got one report about a fallen tree and another about a damaged power line — and little else -by mid-morning. "It was very light, very minor," he said.
Marshall added he does worry that some residents will ignore future weather warnings because the winds weren't as bad as forecasters thought.
"It's the cry-wolf syndrome," he said. "In order to be effective, we also need to be fairly accurate." But, he said, the weather is sometimes difficult to predict.
Even after the high-wind warning was canceled yesterday, Windward O'ahu was still feeling some blustery gusts.
"The wind is howling," said Henry Baxter, who lives at Waimanalo Beach Park. "There's some wind."
Baxter said he stayed at the park through the storm.
He tied all his belongings down so he wouldn't lose anything.
Everybody at the park, he said, "got through pretty much OK."
In Kane'ohe yesterday, there was some debris on the ground, including fallen palm fronds and trash. And by mid-morning, the cold front brought a few heavy downpours. Those rains moved along quickly, though.
And forecasters are predicting today will bring sun.
Reach Mary Vorsino at mvorsino@honoluluadvertiser.com.