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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, December 23, 2009

NFL: Dream if you want, but 49ers just aren't a playoff team yet


By Monte Poole
The Oakland Tribune

OAKLAND, Calif. — We see and hear them every year, that faction of Oakland Raiders fans disconnected from reality, ignoring the facts and denying the dysfunction. It’s as if they believe in magic.

They’re delusional, but that’s OK. Passion is always welcome. It’s the lifeblood of sports.
When it comes to ignoring the facts, though, those devoted to the Raiders have plenty of company among those who root for the 49ers.
They can be delusional, too, and lately they have reverted to being utterly irrational.
Remember, there were 49ers fans who for years questioned the capability of Steve Young, a uniquely talented quarterback now in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. There were fans crying for a new coach during the 1994 season after George Seifert’s 49ers lost by 32 at home to Philadelphia, putting their record at 3-2. San Francisco that season won its fifth Super Bowl, Seifert’s second.
So the hysteria we’re experiencing in 2009, mostly pertaining to the quarterback and the coach, is something of a tradition.
The bar-stool moaning and whining and the sports-talk radio rants seemed to reach a season-high in the wake of Sunday’s loss at Philadelphia, which officially eliminated the 49ers (6-8) from the playoffs.
As if the 49ers were good enough to be a playoff team. I can’t help believing the basis for this idea was literal interpretation of Mike Singletary’s impassioned rhetoric.
Breathe deeply, my friends. Take a few steps back and inspect the team. That ought to make it easier to concede there is nothing about these 49ers that suggests they are a legitimate NFL playoff team.
As much as it may hurt to sweep the Cardinals and know they’ll still win the NFC West, the numbers show Arizona is superior to San Francisco in every way except direct competition. The 49ers are 4-8 away from Cardinals, who are 9-3 away from the 49ers.
The other three NFC teams already in the playoffs (New Orleans, Minnesota, Philadelphia) are more complete, with veterans at head coach and quarterback, multidimensional passing games and defenses that do at least two things exceptionally well. Moreover, these organizations are not new to winning; they’ve combined for one losing season since 2006.
The 49ers last experienced a winning season in 2002, after which sixth-year coach Steve Mariucci was axed. A year later, veteran quarterback Jeff Garcia was dumped.
This brings us back to the elements most crucial to building a winner. Without a fantastic running game and ferocious defense (think 2008 Steelers or ’07 Giants), it’s almost impossible to be successful without an established head coach and/or quarterback.
Singletary (11-12 overall) is 14 games into his first full season. Alex Smith is in his second month as the starter and likely still getting accustomed to the full support of this coaching staff. Under these circumstances, few teams in the NFL were riskier bets to reach the playoffs, much less win upon arrival.
How was this team supposed to get there when its best wide receiver, Michael Crabtree, missed all of training camp and didn’t play until midseason? Manny Lawson’s team-high 5› sacks rank 42nd in the league, well behind New England’s Tully Banta-Cain (8› 14th), who was dismissed by the 49ers after last season.
The 49ers lack dangerous kick returners and lack a field-stretching wideout. If Crabtree is to be this generation’s Michael Irvin, he’s going to need an Alvin Harper.
Then there is the matter of team speed. The acute need to improve it is apparent when playing other quality teams. The only problem with Patrick Willis possessing arguably the most “football speed” on the defense is that he’s a 240-pound linebacker.
In other words, there is much to add before this team can meet the standard of a bona fide playoff team.
Yet each 49ers loss brings another round of yelping about Singletary’s mistakes. And more groaning and sniffling about Smith’s shortcomings. Barring inexcusable blunders, each deserves another year — maybe two for Singletary — before anyone is tattooed with the scarlet “F” for failure.
The first month of the season generated excitement among 49ers fans. In the wake of those false indicators and the accompanying surge of emotion, it’s natural to lash out and cast blame. It’s tough enough being patient in the age of instant gratification, so there is no fun in absorbing the lessons along the way.
No way that these 49ers belong in the playoffs. Finishing at .500 would be an accomplishment. Might even be enough to silence the whining — until it starts again next season. That’s who we’ve been and who we are.