This will be a tough test for political leadership.

There's an outbreak of swine flu in Mexico and it has spread to a number of states on the Mainland and elsewhere in the world.

Thus far, Hawai'i has seen no cases of the flu. But what are officials to do? Gov. Linda Lingle and her top health people took an appropriate, concerned-but-calm approach, stressing basic preventive measures and a reminder about worst-case planning.

Ditto Mayor Mufi Hannemann and other public officials.

It's likely this latest alarm will pass without any major impact, but who knows? Tourism officials are on edge; business is already fragile and the threat of a flu epidemic might be just enough to tip people against traveling. Travel and transportation are always the first to be hit.

But there is a larger issue that local officials have yet to address in any substantive public way. This doesn't mean they're not thinking about it, but they are not talking about it in any concentrated way.

Here's the issue: The world has become increasingly dependent on just-in-time shipments of essential goods and services: food, fuel, paper goods, etc. This makes sound economic sense but makes for an extremely fragile supply pipeline.

It would be hard to think of any other major urbanized concentration of people that is as isolated and vulnerable as is Hawai'i. We depend on shipping for almost all of our energy and a vast percentage of other basic supplies. Diversified agriculture is wonderful, but we are nowhere close to true food security.

This point has been made by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Osterholm said during a recent East-West Center conference in Bangkok, that he is primarily concerned not so much about the direct health threat that a pandemic might have to people (although that is obviously a serious concern), but rather to the disruption a pandemic could cause to the international shipping system — the way goods and services get around the globe today.

Imagine if the relatively small handful of crew who work the tankers and cargo ships that supply Hawai'i become either sick or unwilling to work out of fear of being infected.

Just-in-time stocking policies virtually ensure there would be little, if any, reserve supplies. How long could the Islands endure without food, oil and other necessities?

Many in Hawai'i remember how dock or shipping strikes can disrupt everyday life. A pandemic could have the same effect. This is what our policymakers should be thinking about today.

Jerry Burris' column appears Wednesdays in this space. See his blog at blogs.honoluluadvertiser.com/akamaipolitics. Reach him at jrryburris@yahoo.com.