Maui's job growth will be unchanged this year after an 11-year expansion as it copes with a tourism slump and weak housing market and slow construction, according to a First Hawaiian Bank forecast.

The analysis done by Leroy Laney, a Hawaii Pacific University professor of economics and finance, notes the Hawaii economy has entered a plateau that's been accompanied by rising unemployment. That can be see in Maui County which this year has had to contend with, 274 layoffs at Maui Land & Pineapple and the shutdown of Molokai Ranch.

The report said the 2007 visitor arrivals decline on Maui has worsened in 2008 in part because of the Mainland's economic problems and the closures of Aloha Airlines and ATA.

"Maui visitor industry leadership is reaching out to new markets and focusing on niche markets such as romance, golf and families," the report said.

"Much of the near term future for Maui tourism depends upon how the West Coast economy fares, since Maui is so dependent on that market."

The report said the county's retailing industry is slowing in terms of local and visitor spending, with Queen Ka'ahumanu Center reporting lower sales this year.

The analysis noted there is resilience in the Maui technology sector and that Maui Community College continues to grow. Agriculture is in transition with its remaining sugar operation, HC&S making investments in specialty sugar products, while pineapple and small farming operations are struggling.

Residential construction remains in decline and single-family home resale activity fell 27 percent in volume during the first half of 2008. The report said it may take a few years before Maui home prices take off again.