PHILADELPHIA — One of the more predictable gambits in football routinely occurs after a turnover. Reasoning that the team that just gave up the ball may be momentarily stunned by its misfortune, the opposing coach calls for the bomb.

Sometimes it even works.

The consensus at the start of the surprisingly temperate evening down at the old ballyard, while the blimp floated serenely and helicopters buzzed overhead and the giant flag was unfurled in center field and Gary Matthews and Garry Maddox threw out the ceremonial first pitches, was that a razor thin margin separated the Phillies and Dodgers as Game 1 of the National League Championship Series was about to commence.

To describe how tight he expected the division race to be many years ago, Phillies manager Danny Ozark famously observed that the teams were all close enough, you could throw a blanket over them.

Well, you could throw a rally towel over these two clubs. And when that happens, the result of each game often pivots on breaks and mistakes.

Which turned out to be pretty much the story line as the Phillies slipped past the Dodgers, 3-2, at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday night.

It came to pass that Dodgers starter Derek Lowe sailed through the first five innings, getting Phillies hitter after Phillies hitter to pound his sinker harmlessly into the dirt.

The sixth started out innocently enough when Shane Victorino tapped a ball softly toward shortstop Rafael Furcal.

The Dodgers led, 2-0, at that time. A disappointed sigh passed through the sellout crowd. The fans had already seen this way too many times. And then it happened.

Furcal, who has one of the strongest arms of any shortstop in the game, quickly calculated that Victorino's speed meant he had to make a quick throw. So he winged the ball awkwardly, almost sidearm, and the ball sailed past first baseman James Loney.

"I couldn't get a good grip on the ball and then it sort of slipped," Furcal said.

As a blizzard of red-and-white towels began to wave frantically, Victorino ended up on second, and Chase Utley went for the bomb. He hit Lowe's very next pitch into the seats in right-center to tie the score.

It looked for all the world that Lowe was thinking about the unexpected runner on second instead of focusing on what he was going to throw toward the plate, although all involved denied it.

Dodgers manager Joe Torre dismissed the proposal that his pitcher had been rattled.

"I don't think so at all," he said. "I mean, he's been pitching long enough. Pitching under pressure and all that stuff.

"And Utley is a pretty good hitter. I don't think the error had anything to do with what happened after that."

Lowe, too, shook his head emphatically when asked whether there was any hangover from the error.

Except that he then went on to say he had challenged Utley in a situation he shouldn't have.

"I should have known better," he said. "Any time you're pitching on the road and the crowd gets into it, the hitter is going to be aggressive.

"I knew he was going to swing. Sometimes you're better off throwing a noncompetitive pitch in that situation. My instincts were right."

Throwing a pitch you know you shouldn't have thrown seems like a pretty good definition of a pitcher who has been distracted by something. And while Lowe had given up only 14 home runs all year, he served up two in three batters, when Burrell followed with a shot to left that knocked Lowe out of the game. Hmmmmm.

Score it, at least, a physical mistake on Furcal and a mental mistake on Lowe.

That led to all the Phillies runs, which has become something of a habit for them this month. They are 4-1 in the postseason, despite scoring in only six of the 42 innings they've played.

When your margin for error is that slight, it doesn't hurt to get a break here and there. The Phillies got one in the first.

After Dodgers rightfielder Andre Ethier doubled to left-center with one out, the Phillies chose not to walk Manny Ramirez with first base open. Ramirez responded by ripping a long drive to deep centerfield.

Off the bat, it looked like a home run. But there's a spot just to the left of the shrubbery, right at the 409-foot sign, where the fence rises to 19 feet, its highest point. The ball hit just below the top of the fence and just to the left of the yellow line. It's impossible to hit a ball any farther in this park without hitting a home run.

"I got it all," Ramirez said with a shrug. "I thought it was out. I guess I just have to work on my direction."

Instead of getting two runs, the Dodgers got one when Ramirez was left stranded.

Mistakes gave the Phillies an unearned run. A break cost the Dodgers one.

It doesn't take a mathematician to deduce that was just enough to nudge Thursday night's game into the Phillies' column.