CHICAGO — Despite rising unemployment and a declining economy, take heart: The Grinch won't steal Christmas this year.

While more than half of all Americans will reduce their holiday gift spending this season, research indicates families will still wake up on Christmas morning to find presents under the tree. What will be different from previous years is that more and more shoppers will search out bargains at discount stores and buy gifts with steep markdowns from department stores and specialty stores.

Consumers, particularly women who control the majority of consumer spending in the United States, already have forced retailers to move up the start of the holiday shopping season. Shoppers are watching the circulars and comparing prices. They are putting in more hours to spend fewer dollars. They are scrutinizing their budgets carefully, taking an accountant's view on amounts, choices, product value, and the need for bling, versus bang for the buck.

This will be the year when Americans, already good shoppers, become great shoppers.

Retailers will actively participate in this game, hitting the discount button early and often. In every mall and specialty shop merchandise will be stacked high and priced to sell, potentially causing the lowest holiday retail profits in a decade. Dollar sales will decline only slightly, according to our forecast, but profit margins will sink as promotions wipe away profits.

The holiday shopping season will be driven more by fear than anything else. It's not that incomes this year have dropped; in fact, they've remained stable. It's not that everyone is trying unsuccessfully to sell their house; in fact, only 5 percent of houses are on the market. It's not that unemployment is so rampant; in fact, the rise in unemployment so far has been relatively modest compared to other recessions.

Instead, Americans are battening down the hatches because they are in economic shock and anxious. Nearly a third feel financially insecure; 26 percent have cut spending because of the economy; and 39 feel uncertain about the future of their jobs.

U.S. consumers have always "traded down," or bought lower priced goods, when they are anxious about the economy or need to balance their budgets. This holiday, the process of trading down to get more for their money will loom larger than ever.

Still, shoppers aren't abandoning the best premium brands altogether. They're just becoming choosier, and will "trade up" only for the most innovative and emotionally engaging brands. Although many big ticket purchases are being deferred, nearly 70 percent of the consumers say they are willing to upgrade personal computers and will pay more for the best produce and meats.

How we feel about the economy will have much to do with the holidays. A very wise 90-year-old woman recently told me, "It's not the quantity of gifts anyway, it's the thought. We Americans have so much to be grateful for. I told my 60-year-old son, 'Don't buy me a gift. Save your money for your old age, you're going to live a long life.' "

"I don't need anything this year," another 38-year-old mother said. "I told my husband to buy me a DVD and write me a love poem. I do need love."

In the end, families will get together this year to celebrate Hanukkah and Christmas just like last year and the year before and the year before that. They'll hug and kiss, express gratitude and give thanks. And, of course, they'll eat.

To those who have lived a long life, Christmas 2008 might feel like a Frank Capra movie. They will prepare sumptuous meals, buy wine and toast each other. If they decorated a tree last year, they will do so again this year. They'll count their blessings to have a roof over their heads, gasoline in their cars, and friends and family with whom to celebrate.

Almost everyone will open fewer gifts. But the gifts will have more meaning. In fact, maybe this year's "less-commercial-and-more-love" holiday will become a tradition.

Michael J. Silverstein is a senior partner of The Boston Consulting Group and author of the forthcoming book "The Female Economy: What Women Want." His commentary is distributed by McClatchy-Tribune News Service.