In good times and bad, there's one quality Hawai'i residents have consistently relied on — a sense of shared community support.

Our robust generosity in donating time and treasure to those in need is considered a given, a part of who we are.

This aloha spirit faces a tough challenge in the coming year. The need will be great, and it's hoped the spirit of giving will be stronger than ever in the face of the tough economic times ahead.

The forecasts, released in three reports last week, went from bad to worse.

The latest, from the University of Hawai'i's Economic Research Organization, predicted even steeper declines than its earlier forecasts in key indicators that affect our pocketbooks: Visitor arrivals, payroll jobs and real personal income. The recent spate of layoffs has contributed to increasing Hawai'i's unemployment rate, expected to hit about 6 percent in mid-2009.

In short, Hawai'i is in a recession. And the economy won't see daylight until 2010, UHERO predicts.

The data reflect what's happening in the community, especially among those most vulnerable to an economic downturn: The poor. Those who provide the most basic needs — food and shelter — are struggling to keep up with demand.

Needy families are flocking to free food pantries in noticeably higher numbers, pantry operators report. Stocks are running low. The Hawai'i Foodbank, which supplies pantries statewide, just launched a new "Fill A Bowl" campaign to replenish its depleted shelves.

The number of homeless in shelters statewide has risen 19 percent in 2007, as more shelters have opened to accommodate them. Even so, the unsheltered homeless are easily found in parks and streets from Wai'anae to Waikiki.

The nonprofit groups who support the homeless are facing dwindling donations, grants and appropriations.

Now more than ever, support will need to come from the private sector, and from each of us. State and local governments, facing severe deficits, can't be depended on as in the past: They will reduce social services to balance their books.

The good news is, we have a strong tradition of giving. And some are already stepping up. On Friday, 200 Marines from Kane'ohe marched 5.2 miles with 2,500 pounds of food for the Salvation Army, the YMCA and a church food pantry in Waimanalo. Corporate donors have given more than $20,000 to the "Fill a Bowl" campaign.

While nothing is certain in this roiling world economy, experts predict the downturn will cycle out and better times will return to Hawai'i.

We just need to survive this long economic winter. If we stick together, and help each other, we'll make it through.