For a nation recently conditioned to nail-biting elections that stretch from Tuesday into Wednesday — and perhaps into December, this year offers something different.

Two days before the election, John McCain is behind in every national poll and in polls in nearly every swing state. Barring an unforeseen incident or a well-hidden trove of voters in key states across the country, McCain appears headed for defeat.

While Florida and Ohio offered a dramatic coda to the past two elections, Pennsylvania and Virginia could end the competitive stage of the race quickly this year.

Pennsylvania hasn't gone to a Republican since 1988, and Virginia hasn't gone to a Democrat since 1964. If Obama carries both, as most polling now suggests he will, McCain has no plausible path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the race. That is because the most conservative estimate for Obama suggests he has secured at least 238 electoral votes.

McCain has effectively bet his campaign on winning Pennsylvania. But despite his many visits there in recent weeks, he remains behind by as much as 12 percentage points in recent polls.

"I've not seen anybody in the modern history of Pennsylvania coming back from 12 down," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College. His center's polling has tracked Pennsylvania politics since 1992. "But it's his last stand. I understand why he's here."

At the same time, McCain neglected Virginia, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

"They've got a particular death wish in Virginia. It's amazing," Sabato said. "They really didn't think it was going to be competitive."

For Democrat Barack Obama, the electoral path is relatively simple: Win the usual Democratic states and peel off at least one previously Republican state like Ohio.

By contrast, McCain has to preserve nearly every swing state President Bush carried four years ago, even as many of them now lean to Obama.

Instead of closing the gap in the campaign's climactic final weeks, McCain has fallen further behind, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of registration trends, voting histories and polling data compiled by the nonpartisan Real Clear Politics.

"Obama's going to get way more than 300 electoral votes," Sabato said. "The R (for Republican) matters. It's a scarlet letter, and McCain is wearing it."

2 THAT COULD SETTLE IT

McCain has concentrated much of the final two weeks of the campaign on an effort to wrest Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes from Democrats.

In 2004, Bush also hoped to compete for Pennsylvania. He lost the state by 2.5 percentage points, in part because Democrats had 500,000 more registered voters then than Republicans. Today, Democrats there have 1.2 million more registered voters than the GOP.

Four years ago, Democrat John Kerry led in 18 of the 23 polls taken in Pennsylvania after mid-October; three showed a tie. This year, Obama has led all but two Pennsylvania polls taken since April. Two polls in mid-September were tied.

Kerry's biggest lead from October to the election was 8 points in one poll. Obama has led by 10 or more points in 14 polls since the beginning of October.

The McCain campaign notes that Obama lost the state's April primary to Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But he still spent weeks campaigning in the state and set up dozens of offices there. McCain, who had clinched the GOP nomination by early February, reportedly had three offices there in late July.

Also, Obama's running mate, Joe Biden, is a Pennsylvania native and now represents neighboring Delaware.

Meanwhile, Virginia is one of the clearest signs of the crumbling GOP electoral coalition.

Bush carried the state by 8 percentage points in each of his elections.

For months, polls indicated that Virginia would be close this year. McCain led 15 of the 31 polls between May and September, with two ties. But since October, Obama has led all 20 polls taken in that state, including eight straight outside the margin of error.

The change in Virginia's political loyalties lies largely in the rapid growth of the state, especially in the Washington suburbs in the north. That region has had a heavy influx of young, white-collar professionals who tend to favor Obama and Democrats.

Still, one poll last week showed McCain within 4 points in Virginia, and he and his running mate, Sarah Palin, drew one of their largest crowds there, 23,000.

FLORIDA, OHIO ARE KEY

Even if McCain survives winning at least one of those two states, he can't win without carrying Florida. It is almost impossible for him to win without Ohio, and no Republican ever has. Obama, however, can win without either.

Florida typifies the all-or-nothing problem McCain now faces.

It is a state that has voted for a Democrat only once since 1980 and, along with the South, has been regarded as an electoral counterbalance to Democratic dominance in California and the northeast.

After lagging in Florida most of the summer, Obama caught McCain in the polls in mid-September. Recent polls suggest Obama has a narrow lead heading into Election Day.

This year, Democrats have 650,000 more registered voters in Florida than Republicans, a margin nearly double what they had in 2000 and 2004. And blacks in the conservative northern part of the state may finally vote in more sizable numbers, experts say.

In Ohio, McCain led in 20 of the 38 polls taken there between May and September with two ties. Since October, Obama has led in 23 of the 29 polls, with one tie.

Democrats also have a sizable advantage in new voter registrations though at least 200,000 are considered suspect by the state's GOP. Still, Democrats won big in state and congressional elections in 2006.

The latest polls suggest Ohio and Florida also are leaning to Obama, but their recent history suggests McCain could compete there.