If Big Brown doesn't win the Preakness, I can't tell you who will. Although Barbaro was the 1-2 favorite two years ago when he broke down at Pimlico, Bernardini ran so well that a healthy Barbaro might have had trouble beating him. Big Brown has no such challenger.

Trainer Rick Dutrow sees the two-week turnaround from the Derby as Big Brown's biggest obstacle. "I'm glad to see the competition that's in there," he said. "It's not exactly a stellar field.

" ... I know he's going to react (regress off a peak effort). It just becomes a matter of what we can get by with to win again Saturday."

Denis of Cork, a distant third in the Derby, is skipping the Preakness to await the Belmont. Trainer David Carroll had no illusions that he could make up 8€ lengths on Big Brown this weekend. "Who the heck is going to beat Big Brown?" Carroll said. "He has to beat himself."

THE MONSTER

On paper, Big Brown can't lose, which of course has been said a million times about odds-on horses that lost. But if he breaks well and has no physical or traffic problems, it's hard to imagine any horse in this field beating him. Can't bet him at 2-5 or so and can't bet against him.

SOMEBODY MUST BE SECOND

Icabad Crane won the 1 ⁄-mile Tesio Stakes at Pimlico, so you know he likes the track — he's the only horse in the field to have run here — and can get the distance. Maybe he's the one to put underneath in your cold exacta. Behindthebar, also trained by Todd Pletcher, is 3-for-4 on a synthetic surface but 0-for-1 on dirt. He has a decent chance to be second or third. Gayego has speed, and if the fractions are moderate he could hang around.

Kentucky Bear had a rough trip in the Blue Grass but still closed for third, beaten by 1› lengths. He has license to improve in his fourth career start, but the Blue Grass form didn't hold up in Louisville and his miler's pedigree says no to staying 1 3/16 miles. His career highlight is breaking his maiden in a one-turn mile. Yankee Bravo has strong late-pace numbers and was an OK-third behind Pyro in his only dirt try. He could pass tired horses to get into the triple.

NO-HOPERS

Macho Again looks like a sprinter-miler who won't stay the distance. Giant Moon was a 4-for-4 Belmont/Aqueduct star before reality hit hard in the Gotham and Wood Memorial. New York-bred couldn't gain ground in a sluggish 13 4/5-second final furlong in the Wood.

Hey Byrn didn't beat anybody in Florida, even though he did win the Holy Bull Stakes at the Preakness distance. Racecar Rhapsody, Stevil, Riley Tucker and Tres Borrachos each has one win and are a combined 4-for-26. Why not try a non-winners-of-1 instead of the Preakness?

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