At a gathering of Americans steeped in United States diplomatic and security relations with Japan, an analyst summed up the sentiments around the table in Honolulu and among many colleagues on both sides of the Pacific: "We are entering a dark time in U.S.-Japan relations."

To encourage candor, the conference organizers asked that those attending not be named. No matter. Plenty of Japanese and American specialists have pointed, in each country, to an absence of leadership, an abundance of political turmoil, a lack of vision and a preoccupation with immediate issues. None has singled out an instance of long-range vision in Washington or Tokyo or anyplace else.

In Washington, President Bush is a lame duck who becomes less relevant by the day as his approval rating slips below 30 percent. His administration is preoccupied, to the exclusion of almost all else, with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. There's an occasional glance at policy toward China, but relations with Japan have been reduced to tired slogans about "linchpins" and "cornerstones."

Exceptions: Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who have just visited Asia seeking to reassure friends of U.S. commitments to their region. But Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been to Asia just once this year and once last year. And Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Christopher Hill has left to subordinates all but nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

In Tokyo, Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's approval rating hovers around 20 percent as he deals with a divided legislature in the Diet. Within his Liberal Democratic Party, little gets done as factions jockey for position as they seek to oust Fukuda. Within the opposition, the Democratic Party of Japan, which controls the upper house in the Diet, the turbulence is much the same.

Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, at the Shangri-la meeting of Asian defense ministers in Singapore last weekend, confirmed that "Japan plans neither to amend its constitution nor change its interpretation," meaning Tokyo would not engage in collective defense. The U.S. for years has been urging Japan to remove the so-called "no war" constitutional clause to legitimize its armed forces.

The refusal to engage in collective defense means that the U.S. is obliged by treaty to protect Japan, but Japan has no reciprocal obligation to help defend the U.S. In an otherwise bland address, Ishiba assured his audience that Japan "does not have any plan whatsoever to become a nuclear power." That seemed to express confidence that the nuclear umbrella of the U.S. would remain in place over Japan.

Differences over realigning U.S. military forces in Asia and the Pacific are illuminating. American leaders see shifting Marines from Okinawa to Guam as strategically preparing, if necessary, to confront China's emerging power or North Korean threats. Japanese are more interested in reducing inevitable frictions between Americans on bases in Japan and Japanese living outside the gates.

Richard Lawless, until recently a senior Pentagon official immersed in policy toward Japan, told the Yomiuri newspaper: "The alliance can't move any faster than one of its partners. Right now, Japan clearly is not making adjustments and developing the alliance in its own best interest." Otherwise, he said, "Japan becomes marginalized."

In a separate interview, Ryozo Kato, until recently Japan's ambassador to Washington, told the Yomiuri that Japan and the U.S. "need ceaseless management to maintain our alliance." In the understated terms of the diplomatic profession, Kato said American and Japanese military leaders should have "more meetings or dinners together" to work out specifics in deterrence or operational plans.

The U.S. election campaign has seen little debate over foreign policy outside of Iraq. In a rare exception, Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican candidate, and Sen. Joseph Lieberman, an independent who votes with the Democrats, wrote jointly in the Yomiuri: "Strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance is going to demand strong, courageous and innovative leadership from Tokyo and Washington alike."

They expected "to have a partner in Japan that is willing to assume a role in international affairs that reflects its political, economic and self-defense capacities." The senators added: "The United States in turn must itself be a responsible, reliable ally to Japan, and a good global citizen."

"U.S. power does not mean we can do whatever we want, whenever we want," they said. "If we are to ask more of each other, we must also pay greater attention to each other's concerns and goals."

Richard Halloran is a Honolulu-based journalist and former New York Times correspondent in Asia. His column appears weekly in Sunday's Focus section.