When Michelle Wie began contending for the lead in the State Farm Classic this week, almost by reflex a lot of people started crossing their fingers ... and waiting for the other Nike shoe to drop.

"Should we be holding our breaths?" one fan asked.

In Wie's brief — but star-crossed — career, history tells us that when things appear to be going well that disaster is mostly likely just around the corner. When the situation looks promising, the bizarre occurs.

And so it was yesterday in Springfield, Ill., where Wie seemingly finished her third round alone in second place with a good shot at winning the LPGA event today.

Instead, she was disqualified for failure to immediately sign her scorecard after Friday's round and is left to once again wipe away the tears and ponder her most costly miscue yet. She was making the tough shots and challenging putts but was done in by a routine and basic formality.

Snake-bit, jinxed, ill-fated. Pick a word. They all fit the 18-year-old. Which brings up the question: Can you say "poor Michelle" if she's worth tens of millions of dollars?

This one denied her much more than a golden opportunity at the $255,000 winner's check. It may have doomed her to qualifying school, the Future's Tour or continuing to subsist on sponsor's exemptions again next year. Embarrassing avenues, to say the least, for someone carting her expectations and sponsorship portfolio.

Yet, for all her talent and potential, Wie has not won an LPGA event. This, after the bottom fell out of 2006 and a dreadful 2007 campaign, was to be the year she got that monkey off her back. And this tournament sure held the possibility for a breakthrough.

For one thing the field at State Farm was particularly nondescript, lacking Lorena Ochoa, Annika Sorenstam and Paula Creamer. Overall, eight of the top 10 money winners were elsewhere. For another, she was doing well, finding a rhythm, playing healthy and playing regularly. The course suited her game and she was playing confidently for one of the first times in a long time.

But no sooner had she tied her personal best with a 65 in Friday's second round than it all imploded, again. By leaving the scorer's tent without signing her scorecard she wasted her first back-to-rounds in the 60s in two years.

Wie's other 65 came, ironically, in her first tournament as a pro — the 2005 Samsung World Championship, where, of course, she had been disqualified for a illegal ball drop.

The last time she played in Illinois, the only female in the PGA John Deere Classic, she withdrew with what was cited as heat exhaustion. At the Ginn Tribute last year she withdrew citing an injury, embroiling her in controversy.

These last couple of weeks were to have been defining ones for Wie, who could have used them not only for turning around her career but setting the stage for a fulfilling 2009.

Unfortunately, the way this one ended merely reaffirmed the presence of the dark cloud seemingly still hovering over her.

Reach Ferd Lewis at flewis@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8044.