Transit systems from Los Angeles to New York are benefiting from a bump up in passengers fueled by record gasoline prices.

That could bode well for Honolulu, which plans to spend $3.7 billion on a 20-mile elevated commuter train.

The trend already is helping TheBus, where sales of monthly passes rose 4.3 percent through the first four months of the year. Meanwhile, vehicle miles traveled on Hawai'i's roads fell 1.2 percent through April, according to the Federal Highway Administration.

"Our buses are more crowded," said Roger Morton, chief executive for TheBus. "Obviously, the impact that we've seen with increased ridership is correlated to a certain extent with increased fuel prices."

The real question is whether we are entering a new era of increased mass-transit ridership in Hawai'i and the Mainland where a significant number of residents will shift from driving alone to work to riding a bus or train, Morton said.

Despite the recent spike in ridership, TheBus carries fewer passengers than in the 1980s. Newer, faster train systems are helping boost the popularity of public transit. However, ridership on these systems, on average, is lower than anticipated, according to an April report by the Federal Transit Administration.

In Honolulu, mass transit was the preferred means of getting to work for 33,929 people, or 5.4 percent of commuters, in 2006, according to the Census Bureau. That compared with 67 percent of people who drove alone. Nationally, mass transit was preferred by 4.8 percent of commuters, while nearly 76 percent drove to work alone.

MORE RIDING NATIONALLY

Mass-transit use is gaining this year. Heavy-rail systems on the Mainland experienced a 4.4 percent ridership increase in the first quarter of this year, when compared with the prior-year period, according to the American Public Transportation Association.

Heavy rail is a term that describes systems similar to Honolulu's planned elevated steel train.

The biggest heavy-rail ridership gains occurred in Staten Island, N.Y. (12.3 percent); Boston (8.8 percent); and Jersey City, N.J. (6.5 percent).

Honolulu's planned rail line from East Kapolei to Ala Moana is expected to spur more people to ride public transit. When combined with TheBus, overall mass-transit ridership is expected to increase to 7.4 percent of total transit trips in 2030, up from 6.1 percent projected if the commuter rail line is not built. That's according to a November 2006 Alternatives Analysis report by city consultant Parsons Brinckerhoff.

Rail supporters say rising bus ridership shows Honolulu residents will use the new train system when it begins operations, now planned for December 2012.

"It indicates that it's a fallacy when people say that commuters won't go to the train," said City Council member Gary Okino. "Our bus ridership tells us if we have a more efficient, more attractive system like a high-speed rail system, that it will attract a lot of riders."

FORECASTS OFTEN SHORT

Trains are expected to attract more riders than buses by offering faster, more reliable service, Okino said. A rush-hour commute from East Kapolei to Ala Moana Center would take about 40 minutes and cost passengers $2, according to city plans. By 2030, the train is expected to carry an average of 95,000 riders a day.

Nationally, new urban train systems are helping a host of cities drive more commuters to public transit. However, ridership on these systems tends to fall short of expectations, according to an April report by the Federal Transit Administration.

The study found that 19 recently opened federally subsidized train projects are expected to carry, on average, 74.5 percent of their originally forecast ridership. Two of the projects exceeded initial ridership forecasts, six were between 60 percent and 80 percent of forecasts, and 10 had ridership levels well below forecasts.

STORY OF 2 PROJECTS

One of the biggest ridership disappointments occurred on the 11-mile Tren Urbano, or urban train, in San Juan, Puerto Rico. That system, which opened in late 2004, is expected to carry just 23.6 percent of its originally forecast ridership. That's 86,796 fewer average weekday boardings than expected.

At the other end of the spectrum, a Salt Lake City Medical Center spur is expected to surpass ridership estimates by 217 percent, or 11,741 average weekday boardings.

The FTA study also found that 10 urban rail systems built in the 1980s are now carrying, on average, just 42.4 percent of their originally forecast ridership.

The popularity of public transit is limited because of America's auto-centric lifestyles, said Panos Prevedouros, a University of Hawai'i transportation engineering professor who is at the forefront of opposition to Honolulu's rail project.

"This country very early on, for better or worse, put its eggs in highway travel, freedom of expression and freedom of mobility," he said. "These are manifest behaviors.

"The energy crises of the '70s and '80s proved that there is a knee-jerk reaction" to high gasoline prices, Prevedouros said. "But then people eventually realize that the buses and trains are not workable for their lifestyle so they buy a small car."

Founded in 1971, Honolulu's TheBus experienced robust growth during the 1970s oil crunch. Ridership growth tapered off in the 1980s and peaked in 1994 with 77.3 million annual passengers, according to the Hawaii Databook. Since 1980, TheBus has experienced little net passenger growth, despite a 19.3 percent increase in Honolulu's population.

In 2007, TheBus had 72.6 million passengers. That's slightly more than the 71.6 million passengers carried in 1980.

"Prior to the advent of all these visitor-oriented transportation systems like the trolley and all of those, we provided a lot more services to visitors in Waikiki," said TheBus' Morton. "We have since withdrawn a lot of those short-trip rider services. We basically shifted some of the emphasis from short riders to long riders basically to commute from outlaying areas."

NO END TO CONGESTION

Morton noted TheBus has the fourth best per capita ridership in the nation, according to the FTA.

The size of TheBus fleet has remained relatively stable since the mid-1990s, in part because Downtown and Waikiki aren't capable of accommodating more buses, Morton said.

Traffic congestion, rather than high gasoline prices, will be the key factor that will drive train ridership, said council member Okino.

Even with the train system, there will be an estimated 57 percent increase in traffic on H-1 during morning rush hour in 2030 compared with 2003, according to the city's Alternatives Analysis report. If the transit system was not built but a few improvements were made to the freeway and bus system, traffic would increase by 64 percent by 2030, the study concluded.

"I really think that future congestion and the efficiency of a grade separated (elevated train) system will be enough to convince people," Okino said. "Unlike gas prices, congestion levels will never go down. It will just continue to get worse. Everybody, no matter where they come from, is going to be stuck in gridlock."

AVERAGE RAIL SYSTEM COSTS 40% MORE THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST

Recently built rail systems, on average, experienced 40 percent cost overruns, according to an April report by the Federal Transit Administration.

The agency analyzed 21 federally subsidized train projects that began operations since 2000.

The biggest cost overrun occurred on the 11-mile Tren Urbano, or urban train, in San Juan, Puerto Rico. That system cost $2.23 billion when it opened in late 2004. That was more than double the $1.09 billion cost that was predicted during the project's planning phase.

The price tag for Honolulu's planned 20-mile elevated commuter rail is currently estimated at $3.7 billion. That figure includes a 27 percent, or $1 billion buffer, which city officials hope will cover all cost overruns.

Honolulu taxpayers are expected to bear about $3 billion of the project's costs via a half-percentage point excise tax surcharge that expires in 2022. The FTA is expected to cover remaining costs.

According to the FTA report, the average time from a city's selection of a route to the launch of service was 7.9 years.

Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann hopes to break ground on the project in December of next year. The train system is expected to open in phases between 2012 and 2018.