Opponents of plans to build a $3.7 billion elevated commuter rail claim they're on track to gather enough signatures to ensure a vote on the issue.

Stop Rail Now launched a petition drive April 21 with a goal of garnering 40,000 signatures needed to get an anti-train ordinance on the November ballot. The group now claims to have reached that goal with three weeks remining until an Aug. 4 deadline.

However, just how many registered voters' signatures Stop Rail Now needs to place the anti-rail ordinance on the ballot is in dispute. The group claims it only needs 30,000 signatures plus a buffer of an additional 10,000, in case some are ruled invalid.

However, the City Clerk's office maintains the group will need valid signatures of at least 44,525 registered voters. That means Stop Rail Now could need significantly more signatures to ensure a vote on the issue.

Stop Rail Now backer Cliff Slater said the group expects to hit the 45,000-mark soon.

"I can't believe that it's not going to happen next week," he said. "The 45,000 is what we've set as what is necessary to be very, very safe about the 30,000 we need."

City rules allow citizens to adopt measures via referendum, but they must first gather enough signatures to get their issue on the ballot. Stop Rail Now's proposed ordinance reads: "Honolulu mass transit shall not include trains or rail."

Mayor Mufi Hannemann hopes to start construction on the 20-mile commuter rail late next year. The system, which would connect West Kapolei with Ala Moana, is scheduled to open in phases between 2012 and 2018.

RIGHT TO VOTE DEBATED

The issue of whether Honolulu should build a commuter rail has not been put to a vote.

Stop Rail Now contends the public has a right to vote on whether the city should proceed with the transit project, which would be the largest public works project in state history. Rail proponents, including Hannemann and pro-rail council members, argue that a vote is not needed as the public has input on the project via elected representatives and public hearings.

Hannemann has said he disapproves of Stop Rail Now's effort because it eliminates one possible public transit alternative for Honolulu.

Honolulu elections administrator Glen Takahashi yesterday said general election voters may not get to vote on the anti-rail ordinance even if Stop Rail Now supporters garner the required number of signatures. That's because the group's petition appears to call for a special election vote, he said.

The city's charter prevents a special election from occurring within 180 days of a general election, Takahashi said. The soonest a special election could be held is sometime in the spring, he said.

"It's triggered upon the language of their petition and when they file it," he said. "That's entirely their call. They're calling for a special election according to what I've seen."

COURTS MAY DECIDE

The outcome of the anti-rail effort could be decided in court. Stop Rail Now plans to ask a judge next week to resolve the question of how many signatures are required to get an ordinance on the November ballot, Slater said.

Whether a special election on the anti-rail ordinance would favor or hurt the effort is unclear. However, history shows that special elections generate relatively low voter turnouts.

Stop Rail Now's efforts already have generated a backlash of pro-rail support from some residents, unions and others. Proponents and opponents of the project also have accused each other of misleading the public.

David Wilson, a principal at McNeil Wilson Communications, yesterday expressed skepticism about whether Stop Rail Now really has gathered 40,000 signatures. Wilson and undisclosed backers recently launched a pro-rail advertising campaign featuring the new Web site www.supportrailtransit.com along with TV and radio ads.

"They're talking a good game," Wilson said. "But talk is cheap. You've got to be skeptical of these people."