Poll shows Dems tied, GOP led by McCain
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Barack Obama has surged to a statistical tie with Hillary Rodham Clinton in a new USA Today-Gallup Poll, erasing a double-digit national lead she held just two weeks ago and turning the Democratic nomination race into a nail-biter.
Three other national polls also showed gains by Obama and, on the Republican side, a decisive lead for Arizona Sen. John McCain.
USA Today's poll had Clinton at 45 percent and Obama at 44 percent in a snapshot of voter intent just two days before 24 states hold primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday.
McCain gained 11 percentage points from USA Today's poll of two weeks ago for a 42 percent to 24 percent lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
The poll conducted Thursday through Saturday included 867 Republicans, with a plus or minus 4 percentage point margin of error, and 985 Democrats, with a 3- point margin of error.
Among Republicans, McCain is supported by 48 percent of likely Republican voters in the Post-ABC poll, compared with 24 percent for Romney, 16 percent for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 7 percent for Texas Rep. Ron Paul.
The Post-ABC poll, conducted Wednesday through Friday, included 1,249 Americans. The margin of error among Republicans was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
The Pew survey showed McCain leading nationwide among Republicans with 42 percent, a 13-point increase from a similar mid-January poll. Romney followed with 22 percent and Huckabee with 20 percent. Romney had 17 percent in January and Huckabee had 20 percent.
The Pew nationwide telephone poll of 1,502 adults was conducted Wednesday through Saturday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for Democrats and 5 percentage points for Republicans.
McCain had 46 percent, Romney 23 percent and Huckabee 12 percent in the poll, based on telephone interviews Wednesday through Saturday among a random national sample of 1,232 adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5 percentage points for Democrats, and plus or minus 6 percentage points for Republicans and GOP-leaning independents.
MCCAIN 'OPTIMISTIC'
McCain, who has drawn strength in past contests from independents and moderates, beat Romney 41 percent to 26 percent among Republicans or independents leaning Republican in the USA Today poll and 38 percent to 28 percent among conservatives.
"I'm guardedly optimistic," McCain said yesterday in Nashville, Tenn. "I think we're doing well. I think I sense a feeling of momentum, but we're not taking anything for granted. That's why we're campaigning literally 24/7 between now and Tuesday."
Seven in 10 people in the poll said they were paying "quite a lot" of attention to the campaign — up 7 percentage points from two weeks ago. That's higher than the 58 percent who said that four years ago, at a similar point in an election that drew high interest because of the Iraq war.
Obama gained 11 percentage points to erase Clinton's lead of two weeks ago in the USA Today poll. The Illinois senator has been riding a wave of momentum since a landslide victory in South Carolina's Jan. 26 primary.
The USA Today poll showed Obama had the highest favorable rating of the major candidates still in the race — 59 percent favorable to 32 percent unfavorable. McCain was close behind with 56 percent favorable, 32 percent unfavorable.
Clinton was even at 48 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable. Romney was the only candidate with a net negative rating: 37 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable.
