BEIJING — Take it from one of the world's most most celebrated track and field experts that nothing less than a total meltdown can now keep Hawai'i's Bryan Clay away from the Olympic decathlon gold medal.

"The only question now is whether Bryan will simply break the Olympic record for the decathlon (8,893 points by Roman Seberle of the Czech Republic at Athens in 2004) or get the world record, too (Seberle's 9,026-point score at Gotzis, Austria in 2005)," says high jump great-turned TV analyst Dwight Stones.

After eight events and 7,365 points in the bank, Clay was comfortably ahead.

"Bryan may have lost 50 or 60 points in the last two events Thursday," said Stones, the former world record-holder in the high jump and twice and Olympic medalist. "The rain was coming down Thursday night, and that hurt him in the high jump. Bryan's usually a 6-10 jumper but he only went 6-6. The wet approach certainly didn't help him.

"And all that effort probably cost him some in the final event Thursday, Bryan has run 47.78 for the 400 meters in the past. Here, he just did 48.92. That was a differential of between 50 and points right there."

Clay's record hopes — world or Olympic — may come down to his performance in the 10th and concluding event, the 1,500-meter run.

Clay's fastest-ever 1,500 is a 4:38.93, but decathletes are usually too weary to run a decent 1,500 and are closer to five minutes than four.

"It's not that Bryan can't run faster than 4:38 for the 1,500 meters, but what he has left at that point," Stones said.

"He'll be on the brink of exhaustion by then. The whole burden of the first nine events is cumulative. Warming up for each event, then warming down. All the different muscle groups will have been in play. He's going to be stretched out to the max. His body will be like a rag doll.

"But if he's in range for a world record, I predict he will make a supreme effort to go for it," Stones added. "The world record will be enough of an incentive for him to go for it.

"What he does, as a smaller man competing against these bigger guys in the the throws, is just amazing. He has that great ability to keep the implement moving. And he has outstanding speed, which helps him score well in the high jump and long jump, as well as the pole vault. Plus, of course, the 100, 400 and hurdles.

"So that leaves only the 1,500 meters.

"I predict he'll get at least 8,900 points (to break Dan O'Brien's American record) and be pretty darn close to 9,000.

"But, frankly, wherever he winds up, he has already proven that he is just an incredible athlete."