The Japanese Golden Week holidays appear less lustrous this year, with projected arrivals down at least 10.5 percent from last year.

The yen's recent surge against the dollar should help entice Japanese travelers to the U.S., but this year's Golden Week holidays haven't lined up in Hawai'i's favor.

This year, the four national holidays are staggered over two weeks, leaving many Japanese travelers without a vacation block long enough for overseas travel.

"The fragmented nature of this year's Golden Week is the primary culprit behind the Japanese not being able to travel overseas to long-haul or even medium-haul destinations," said Stephen Pearlman, spokesman for Japan Airlines in Tokyo.

The Japan Travel Bureau, a leading Japanese travel agent, projects a decline of 10.5 percent in Japanese visitors to Hawai'i over Golden Week, while Japan Airlines forecasts a 12.8 percent drop from April 25 to May 6.

That's unfortunate for the state's No. 1 industry, which already is suffering from a decrease in a arrivals because of the closures of Aloha Airlines' passenger service and ATA Airlines.

Japanese travelers typically spend about 60 percent more per day than Mainland visitors — $269 per person per day versus $169.

METALLIC FIXATION

Golden Week "is probably the third-most-important holiday," said Kantaro Sekine, who has worked at Salvatore Ferragamo in Waikiki since 1994.

He said the rush of Japanese customers at the high-end Italian store usually comes toward the end of Golden Week. What's in? "Anything metallic — shoes, bags and wallets," he said. "Metallic is the in thing, and it's been in for a while."

Sekine said Japanese visitors can find the same items in Japan, but here they are 30 percent to 40 percent cheaper.

A stronger yen puts all of Hawai'i on sale for the Japanese. The yen has climbed by about 13 percent against the dollar in the past year, from nearly 120 yen to the dollar to about 104 yen yesterday.

While the stronger yen may be helping, a rise in airfares between Japan and Hawai'i may be canceling any benefit.

Higher jet-fuel prices have forced most airlines to add surcharges to tickets.

Meanwhile, the number of Japanese visitors to Hawai'i has been on a steady decline since it peaked in 1997 at 2.2 million. In 2006, only 1.36 million came, and 1.31 million came in 2007.

According to the Japan Travel Bureau's Golden Week Travel Trends report, the number of Japanese overseas travelers during Golden Week will be 458,000. That pulls down the projected volume to the lowest since 2003 during the SARS illness scare when a series of air passengers became sick with an acute respiratory ailment.

State tourism liaison Marsha Wienert said this annual holiday season has dimmed as an economic force for more than five years. In the 1990s, Wienert said, Golden Week was the primary time when workers traveled.

"Back in the heyday, Golden Week was really a time where everybody closed down and workers were encouraged to travel," Wienert said.

Now, Japanese workers are increasingly taking vacation at other times of the year instead of over three traditional holidays: New Years, Golden Week and Obon in August.

Visitor arrivals from Japan are down 4.2 percent year to date compared with last year.

Other destinations are also experiencing a decline in Japanese arrivals during Golden Week.

JTB predicts China will a drop of 20.2 percent. Europe will be off by 18.8 percent. The U.S. Mainland will drop 23.1 percent.

CLOSER TO HOME

Japan Airlines is showing the number of international passenger flight reservations for Japan departures down by 6.7 percent, with higher travel to closer destinations such as Guam, South Korea and Taiwan all up over last year.

Pearlman, of JAL, said the number of seats available between Japan and Hawai'i has dropped 15 percent since last year. Pearlman said Hawai'i remains in high demand, with flights here running 81 percent full.

JAL has added nine flights for Golden Week, but that's down from the 15 it added last year, Pearlman said.

David Uchiyama, Hawai'i Tourism Authority vice president of tourism marketing, said he's encouraged by the numbers of Japan visitors who are still coming to Hawai'i.

And they are hearing from Japan visitors who traveled closer to home — Okinawa, China or other Asian countries — but now want to return to the Islands. Why? "It was nice, but it wasn't Hawai'i," he said.