The long-awaited report from Army Gen. David Petraeus on the "surge" of 30,000 extra troops to Iraq that President Bush ordered in January probably won't have much of an impact on Hawai'i troops.

Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, briefs Congress tomorrow and Tuesday on progress in Iraq and whether it would be wise to begin pulling back the troops sent there as part of the surge.

While there are nearly 8,000 Hawai'i-based soldiers and Marines in Iraq, none was part of the troop surge, so it is unlikely their deployments will be directly affected by Petraeus' report.

Petraeus is widely expected to say the surge has worked but will also discuss how and when to start drawing down the 30,000 surge forces.

The number of U.S. troops in Iraq will soon hit a record high of 172,000 with a series of unit rotations and temporary overlap as units arrive as replacements, but will then drop back down to about 162,000.

Among those new troops will be Schofield's Stryker brigade, with 4,000 soldiers and more than 300 of the 19-ton armored vehicles that give the unit its name.

The unit will be making its first combat deployment to Iraq — to a base north of Baghdad — in late November and December.

The surge was intended to give the Baghdad government breathing room to implement its goals.

The Petraeus report will serve as both a strategic backdrop and a source of performance measurements, and comes on the heels of three major war analyses — by government agencies and an independent commission — all highly critical of the situation in Iraq.

SHIFTING MISSIONS

It also follows more than four years of shifting missions in Iraq — from thwarting banned weapons programs to building a model democracy — and widely touted turning points that have only led to more violence.

To the extent the report provides clues about the continuation of the war, it could be relevant to local troops and families who have faced the stress of repeat deployments to Iraq and an exodus of experience from military ranks.

Nichole DeKok, 31, whose husband, Army Spc. Dar DeKok, is with the 2nd Battalion, 27th Infantry "Wolfhounds" in northern Iraq, said if it's not Iraq, "it will always be something else."

"Look at how it was Korea then Vietnam and the Gulf War," said DeKok, who is a family readiness group leader at Schofield Barracks and helps keep other spouses informed. "There's always something else we have to take care of.

"You've got to look at it — war is going to be war. As long as you are in the military, there is going to be something that is always (impacting) on morale, because you don't know what's going to happen."

Amid talk of a possibly more defensive role for U.S. forces in Iraq next year, Maj. Gen. Benjamin "Randy" Mixon, the commanding general of the 25th Infantry Division in Hawai'i and current commander of U.S. troops in northern Iraq, said he doesn't expect much of a change for Hawai'i's Stryker brigade.

"I have not seen the Stryker brigade's specific mission but I do not suspect it will change much from what we are currently doing; on the offense taking the fight to the enemy," Mixon said by e-mail to The Advertiser.

While the Stryker brigade is gearing up to deploy, the 7,000 Schofield Barracks soldiers now in Iraq are coming home this month and in October after finishing up more than a yearlong tour.

Approximately 900 Hawai'i Marines from Kane'ohe Bay have been on repeat deployments to Haditha in Anbar province. The 1st Battalion, 3rd Marine Regiment is preparing to leave Iraq and another 900 Marines with the 3rd Battalion recently started patrolling in Karmah in western Iraq.

'TIPPING THE SCALES'

The commander of the 1st Battalion, Lt. Col. James Bierman, told The Advertiser in an e-mail that his battalion — which has not suffered a combat fatality during the deployment — benefited from "three (previous) years of Marine Corps hard work and sacrifice in the Triad area of Iraq. Every battalion has made significant contributions during its time here, and the combined weight of all these efforts is tipping the scales."

The results of cooperation with the sheiks, along with building berms around Haditha and neighboring cities and checking cars going in for weapons, have been telling.

The 2nd Battalion, 3rd Marines from Kane'ohe Bay lost 23 Marines to roadside bombs, snipers and firefights, while the 1st Battalion, 3rd Marines who followed them and are about to leave Iraq, have not had any fatalities.

Marines have fought repeatedly in cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi, routing insurgents who filter back in when U.S. forces have left.

Bush is scheduled to deliver a major speech on Iraq next week following the Petraeus report where he's expected to show more of his trademark resolve on the troop surge as a strategy. Bush recently indicated he would consider small troop reductions, if conditions permitted, but did not say when.

Official Pentagon plans call for the surge to continue until April, at which point troop levels are supposed to return to pre-surge levels of about 130,000.

Bush's recent trip to Iraq's Anbar province clearly telegraphed one of the major arguments he and Petraeus will make: While Iraq's central government in Baghdad may be struggling, tribal leaders in the countryside are making political strides as part of a bottom-up reconciliation dubbed the "Anbar awakening."

Anbar province is home to many Sunni insurgents now fighting alongside American forces against al-Qaida in Iraq.

But war critics note that the Anbar tribes have made common cause with the American military, not with the central Shiite government, which the Sunnis continue to fight politically and militarily.

A drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq is likely next year if for no other reason than the deployments of the five brigades of surge troops will end and there are no fresh troops to replace them.

Mixon in July said U.S. forces in the north could be reduced by half beginning in January and continuing over 18 months as a result of an improving security situation.

Approximately 24,000 U.S. troops are under Mixon's command, including more than 7,000 from Hawai'i.

"I have already repositioned some forces to other parts of my battle space," Mixon said. "It would be possible to reposition forces to other areas based on certain political activities being completed such as provincial elections and so forth."

Mixon added that "none of these actions stand alone, there is always risk and we will need to stay engaged with a military presence. The real question is not to reduce forces but what is the mission and what are the strategic goals of the United States?"

Recently, the president flew into western Anbar province, a Sunni region largely ignored by the Shiite central government, and where the U.S. has been equipping and arming tribal sheiks in their fight against al-Qaida.

Bush said that military and diplomatic officials in Iraq believe that if the Anbar success continues, it would be possible to maintain the same level of security with fewer forces.

Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com.