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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Monday, October 8, 2007

CEOs showing less confidence in U.S. economy

By Joe Richter
Bloomberg News Service

Chief executives were more pessimistic over the U.S. economy's prospects in the third quarter, according to a private survey.

The Conference Board's index of CEO confidence fell to 44, a second straight decline and the lowest since the third quarter of 2006, from 45 in the second quarter, the independent New York-based research group said. Readings less than 50 reflect more negative than positive responses.

The report showed a greater share of companies plan to trim spending on plants and equipment as assessments of current economic conditions fell to the lowest level since 2001. At the same time, executives foresee better conditions in the economy and their own industries in six months.

The proportion of executives reporting increases in their companies' capital investment plans since the beginning of the year fell to 24 percent from 28 percent this time last year. Thirteen percent scaled back plans this year, compared with 9 percent in 2006.

A decline in sales volume was the most-cited reason for decreases in spending, said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

Economists have trimmed estimates for economic growth since the rout in subprime-mortgage lending compounded troubles for the housing market.

The economy will probably expand 2 percent this year, the smallest gain since 2002, based on the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month.

The Conference Board's index of current economic conditions fell to 39 in the third quarter from 49 in the prior three months, the biggest drop since the second quarter of 2006. Seventeen percent of the chief executives polled said conditions were better in their own industry, down from 23 percent from April through June.

The Conference Board's index on the outlook for the next six months rose to 44 from 43. The proportion expecting economic conditions to improve in the next six months rose to 20 percent, from 17 percent.

The index for industry expectations over the next six months rose to 50 from 43.

A payrolls report from the Labor Department today showed employment accelerated in September and unexpectedly rose in August, helping easing concern the economy is headed toward recession.