After recent high-profile recalls of some Barbie, Polly Pocket and Thomas & Friends products, you've vowed not to buy Chinese-made toys this Christmas.

Good luck.

Even though it's shaping up to be the "anti-China Christmas," your kid's stocking likely will be stuffed with Chinese-made toys - unless you put oranges in it. That's because 80 percent of all toys sold in the U.S. are made in China. Some internal toy-industry estimates show only about 10 percent are actually made here.

More important, there's mounting evidence that avoiding Chinese-made toys may not be worth it. New research shows that most of the toy recalls in the last 20 years were due to design problems by the U.S. toymakers, not manufacturing problems that were the fault of Chinese or other foreign plants. U.S. toymakers also are far from immune to safety problems and may have at least as high a percentage of recalls as China when the U.S.' small market share is considered.

And if you do go the U.S.-made route, be ready for limited choices and, perhaps, a tough sell to the kids. Most U.S.-made toys are wooden, old-fashioned "nostalgia" toys, such as blocks or puzzles, that may not hold the interest of kids older than toddlers. There's Slinky, the twisty-wire-walking toy from the 1950s, and some plastic toys like K'Nex construction sets.

When parents start looking for U.S.-made toys, "They'll be surprised at how few there are," says Gary Lindsey, marketing vice president for toy retailer eToys.com.

Still, retailers are scrambling to add U.S.-made toys to their shelves. And manufacturers are gearing up.

The Whittle Shortline Railroad toy company of Louisiana, Mo., has added 30 employees to meet demand. Holgate Toys of Bradford, Pa., maker of classic wooden toys like the Rocky Color Cone (the stackable wooden rings on a peg), added a second shift after getting scores of e-mails and calls from parents and retailers. "We think it's the start of something big," says President Richard Bly.

Hatfield, Pa.-based K'Nex Toys has added a third shift and is paying overtime to meet demand for its often-made-here construction sets. K'Nex has put new "Made in the USA" stickers on the one-third of its toys that are all-U.S.-made. But President Michael Araten says there's more to attracting American-made toy buyers than that.

"What's important to focus on is the combination of safety, fun and innovation," says Araten, whose 6- and 9-year-old kids have many Chinese-made toys, too. "Toys can be as safe as you want, but if your child doesn't want it, it isn't any good."

ARE U.S.-MADE TOYS SAFER?

None of the recent high-profile toy recalls because of lead or lead paint involved U.S. made toys. But U.S.-made toys aren't necessarily safer than those made overseas, according to data from the Consumer Product Safety Commission.

U.S.-made toys were the subject of four of the 40 toy recalls the CPSC announced in the 2006 fiscal year, or 10 percent. Chinese-made toys were the subject of 28, or 70 percent. The other recalls were divided among toys made elsewhere in Asia and Europe.

That means China had a lower percentage of recalls than its 80 percent market share, while the U.S.' share of recalls is about the same as its estimated 10 percent share of sales. In fiscal 2007, which began Oct. 1, 2006, CPSC's recall efforts largely focused on lead issues, and China's share of toy recalls jumped to 88 percent of recalls in the year ended last week.

"What's the difference between American toys that are risky and Chinese toys that are risky?" asks David Ropeik, a risk communication consultant and former instructor at the Harvard School of Public Health. "One comes from someplace else. It feels scarier."

Most toy recalls are for poor design, not poor manufacturing, says Hari Bapuji, lead author of an August study of U.S. toy recalls.

The study of 680 recalls since 1974 found that 76 percent were due to design flaws, 10 percent because of manufacturing problems. The design flaws were the fault of the U.S.-based toy designers, not the foreign manufacturers, the study claims.

"It's not the problem with the 'Made in China' label,' says Bapuji of the Asper School of Business at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Canada. "It's the way the things have been designed. Even if it was made somewhere else, it was likely to have similar kinds of problems."

Those design flaws can include tiny pieces that break off easily and can choke a child, sharp edges than can cut, or small magnets that, if swallowed, can damage a child's intestines, even causing death. In the recent Mattel recalls of toys made in China, though, the issue was mostly manufacturing errors caused by hired contractors who used lead-based paint. Lead paint has been banned on toys sold in the U.S. since 1978.

Carter Keithley, president of the Toy Industry Association, says design problems can be difficult for toymakers to anticipate because they can include "how a toy 'might' be misused."

As an example, he points to small magnets in earlier versions of the Magnetix building sets that killed one child and injured dozens of others so badly they needed surgery. No one anticipated that magnets "would stick together" and cause blockages in children's stomachs, he says.

Toymakers tend to focus on choking risks, not swallowing risks, because, Keithley notes, pediatricians often say "don't worry; it will pass."

"It's not always possible to think of every possibility," says Keithley.

U.S. toymakers say their safety inspections and standards are strict. "All our products are non-toxic; they meet all government standards; and we test to more stringent standards," says Bly of Holgate Toys, which grew out of a wood handle company started in 1789.

"We think these (problems with China) are a wake-up call" to consumers, he says. "We're trying to be pro-active."

The U.S. industry has become a specialty toy industry manned mainly by small, family-owned firms that emphasize woodworking skills, made-to-order stuffed animals or ingenious plastic educational toys.

So much so that when Playthings Magazine put together its October issue on U.S.-made toys, page designers were worried. "We didn't want it to look too Amish," says Karyn Peterson, managing editor.

A LINK TO THE PAST

U.S.-made toys are favorites of grandparents buying toys for young children. Or for parents seeking an "authentic" childhood like the ones they recall from hazy memories and Norman Rockwell paintings.

These "authenti-seekers" want a return to simpler times, even if it's just the touch and feel of simpler times, says trend watcher Jody Turner of http://cultureoffuture.com.

"People want to have a link to the old times. We want to connect globally on the Internet, but we want to have 'real-time' experiences, like playing games at home with our children or going to farmers’ markets or local festivals."

Recalls of some Chinese-made toys this year for using lead paint also feed a growing health fear among American consumers, she says. "We live with all this toxicity in our lives and have cancer rates that are high. But to have our children exposed with a toy is really emotional."

Consumer electronics may be one way parents ward off toy fears this year. More electronic toys, such as children's laptops and learning games, are aimed at toddlers, says Joe Bates, director of research for the Consumer Electronics Association.

"Anecdotally, the trend we've seen is that adult use has trickled down to teens, and we assume to the younger children’s population, too," he says. CEA says households with children spend more on electronics than non-child homes, $1,500 a year vs. $1,200. If the household has teenagers, the amount jumps to $1,800. And that’s not counting the $350 of their own money that teens spend on consumer electronics.

"The news about lead in toys from China has changed what I will buy my son in the days to come," says Angela Harris of Richmond, Va. "I'm more focused on buying him things that he can't put in his mouth (such as) larger toys like kiddie laptops and/or computer games."

With the holidays three months off, more Americans say they are eyeing U.S.-made toys. In an unscientific survey of 221 online consumers by www.eToys.com, 25 percent said they were going to buy only toys made in America because of the recalls.

But while parents may be searching for U.S.-made toys and alternatives to toys now, they'll likely change their minds once the holidays get closer, says Lindsey of www.eToys.com

"Most people will determine (what they buy) as soon as their children say they want this specific thing for Christmas," he says. "In the end, that will be the stronger driver' than fears about Chinese-made toys.

The toys he expects to be hot-sellers this holiday season are all made in China. Like Tickle Me Elmo (the new version with Elmo as a pizza delivery man). Or the Webkinz plush toys, which have their own online world. Or the Transformer Voice Changer helmet: "It's just the coolest thing we've ever seen," says Peterson of Playthings. It, too, is made in China.

Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas, said the recent recalls prompted him to do considerable research before buying his 2-year-old son a Radio Flyer tricycle and a Tonka dump truck.

"We really looked at where those products were manufactured and looked at the label because we want him to be safe," said Barton.

Radio Flyer has its tricycles and metal red wagons made in China but makes its red plastic wagons here. Hasbro’s Tonka trucks are made in China, too.