Recession fears subside over hopeful job report
By Kevin G. Hall
McClatchy-Tribune News Service
WASHINGTON — Fear of an imminent recession evaporated yesterday when the Labor Department reported that employers added plenty of jobs in September and revised upward its dismal August report, signaling that the economy remains in a mild, manageable slowdown while continuing to grow.
Non-farm payrolls rose by 110,000 in September, and August payrolls swelled by 89,000 — far better than the alarming 4,000-job decline initially reported last month, which spooked financial markets.
The new data took pressure off the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again. Financial markets were buoyed by the good jobs report, even though the unemployment rate rose slightly, to a still-low 4.7 percent, as more people resumed looking for work. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.66 percent, or 91.60 points, to close at 14,066.01 yesterday, while the S&P 500 set a record, rising 0.96 percent, or 14.75 points, to close at 1557.59
"Given the rebound in hiring, can we now say the economy is certain to avoid a recession? Yes," said Bernard Baumohl, managing director of The Economic Outlook Group LLC, a forecaster in Princeton Junction, N.J.
However, he cautioned, private-sector job growth is slowing. Private employers added 166,000 jobs in the third quarter of 2006, 126,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2007, and just 74,000 jobs from July through September. Government added the rest.
Nevertheless, President Bush touted the job numbers, appearing in the Oval Office with his economic team and saying that yesterday's data are "an indicator that this economy is a vibrant and strong economy."
The Labor Department was more restrained.
"After incorporating these revisions, average monthly job growth for June through September is 90,000, compared with an average of 147,000 for the first five months of the year," said Philip Rones, acting commissioner for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in a statement.
The job numbers are consistent with a slow-growing economy. That's what the Federal Reserve wants, to take pressure off inflation while sustaining prosperity.
The Fed cut its benchmark lending rate by half a point on Sept. 18 to revive the financial world after it seized up from scares rooted in housing, credit and banking problems. The initial August job-loss report fanned fears of recession, so the Fed cut rates.
Prior to that, however, the Fed had insisted as recently as Aug. 7 that resurgent inflation posed a greater threat than recession. Now, with the reassuring jobs trend and signs that the housing and credit problems are manageable, the Fed has some breathing room before deciding what to do next. Its policymakers meet Oct. 30-31.