A drier-than-normal winter already has taken its toll on some of the state's ranches and could lead to more problems as Hawai'i moves into the hot, arid months.

According to the National Weather Service, the Hawaiian Island chain saw about 40 percent to 60 percent of its normal rainfall this winter. And while many in the Islands haven't felt an impact, ranchers, wildland managers and some farmers are suffering.

"We're in a drought," said Pono Von Holt, manager of Ponoholo Ranch in Kohala on the Big Island. "The first part of the ranch started getting (drought-like) by January and I'd say probably 90 percent is in drought now."

Von Holt said he will have to wean his calves early and ship them to the Mainland. He also expects his cattle to lose weight because of the lack of grass.

"Every animal will suffer, too. Cows will carry a little bit lighter body weight. Our conception rate might be down. Everything gets hurt," he said.

Von Holt said he considers it a drought when rain is down 20 percent of the annual rainfall. On his ranch, rainfall can vary from a high of 150 inches a year to a low of six inches annually.

Others are feeling the effects.

Maunawili taro farmer Mark Paikuli-Stride said taro production is showing the first signs of the drop in rainfall as the water temperature is rising in his fields. Healthy taro depends on cool running water.

"When the temperature changes like this, the plant will have a tendency to go into shock and then it becomes susceptible to insects," Paikuli-Stride said. "We're very concerned because the patterns are changing a lot and even our mountain apples are fruiting out of season right now."

The dry weather is also causing problems in state forests, where fires have increased, especially on the Big Island, said Wayne Ching, state protection forester with the Department of Land and Natural Resources.

Ching said the number of fires affecting DLNR land has almost tripled this fiscal year compared with last year. So far there have been 23 fires affecting 20,500 acres; there were eight fires in the previous year.

"It's very abnormal especially when you get fires in January and February," he said. "When we start getting fires in the early part of the year, we get concerned about fires later on."

WHEN WILL RAIN RETURN?

'Ulupalakua Ranch on Maui is facing similar conditions as Ponoholo Ranch with reduced grazing and relatively little regrowth, said Sumner Erdman, ranch president. Low rainfall during the winter prevented the ground from recharging moisture and storing it for new growth. Now all the grounds are drying up and so is the grass, Erdman said.

"Normally, we'd come to expect that in July to August," Erdman said. "Now we have to hold out until the winter rains come, which would be in November."

Hydrologist Kevin Kodama, with the weather service, said from October to April many areas in the Islands saw only 40 percent to 60 percent of their normal rainfall, including the wet windward sides. Climate experts had predicted a drier winter but summer predictions are more difficult because weather patterns are not as clear-cut, he said.

He couldn't hold out much hope for the ranchers.

"Since we had lower than normal rainfall during the wet season and because we're heading into the dry season, it's not likely they're going to see a whole lot of relief," he said.

Kodama said leeward areas were hardest hit on every island and places on the Big Island and Maui that rely on surface water or catchment systems could see problems later in the year depending on their storage capacity.

Already, problems are cropping up with the Big Island. The county Department of Water Supply on May 7 issued a request to reduce water consumption by 10 percent in Na'alehu, Wai'ohinu to South Point.

Agriculture users were asked to irrigate at night from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m. The reason given was large demand and ongoing dry weather conditions.

The reduced rainfall is occurring during a weather condition called El Niño, where warmer waters spread over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, frequently leading to drier winters. Now the opposite weather condition — La Niña — is forming, spreading colder water over the equatorial Pacific, said Annamalai Hariharasubramanian, a University of Hawai'i expert who studies the effect of El Niño on the Hawaiian Islands.

"During moderate-to-strong La Niña conditions, one can expect above-normal rainfall over the Hawaiian Islands," Hariharasubramanian said. But that may not come until winter, he said.

SOME FARMERS OK

Some O'ahu farmers that were contacted said they are not having problems because they rely on irrigation systems that are supplied by reservoirs or wells.

The Board of Water Supply said it is not overly concerned but it learned a lesson from a prolonged drought that started in the late 1990s.

"The lesson we learned after that drought is we have to get into a frame of mind and we have to help our customers get into a frame of mind where they're constantly conserving," said Su Shin, BWS spokeswoman.

The ranches have their hands full just managing the dry conditions. And Ching said he's implementing strategies to help fight fires.

The last drought in the Islands lasted seven years, from 1997 to 2004, said Erdman of 'Ulupalakua Ranch.

"The hard part is we were just getting back on our feet from the seven-year drought," he said. "We were just rebuilding our herd from those years. So to look at having to reduce the herd again is very ominous."

Every island experienced far less rainfall than normal from October 2006 to April 2007. The locations shown below are the areas that were most off the norm, with some spots receiving about half the rain they usually get. See Page A2 for rainfall totals for 100 sites across Hawai'i.

Reach Eloise Aguiar at eaguiar@honoluluadvertiser.com.