A severe pandemic flu outbreak could cost Hawai'i 10,000 lives and $3.6 billion in economic losses, according to a report released yesterday by the Trust for America's Health.

States that rely heavily on tourism and entertainment would sustain the largest economic losses because people would avoid travel and crowds during a flu pandemic, the report said.

Nevada's economy could take the biggest hit, with a predicted decline of 8 percent in gross domestic product, the most of any state. Hawai'i was next with a 6.6 percent drop in economic activity, according to the report, which looked at the potential for a U.S. economic recession in the wake of a pandemic flu.

State officials yesterday agreed that Hawai'i's tourism economy would be hard hit, and emphasized the need for preparedness by the state and within households and the business community to mitigate the harm.

"There really might not be an answer as to how we will overcome any economic effect because of an outbreak of influenza," said Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona Jr., adding the state would have to "take the hit as best we can."

But the report also highlights the need for businesses and families to be prepared, Aiona said.

Aiona, along with Dr. Chiyome Fukino, the state health director; Maj. Gen. Robert G.F. Lee, the state adjutant general; and tourism liaison Marsha Wienert, held a news conference yesterday at the state Capitol to talk about state planning efforts for pandemic threats — including a new "Share Aloha, Not Germs" public information campaign.

INCREASED AWARENESS

Set to run through June, the television, newsprint, radio and bus ad campaign seeks to raise awareness of pandemic threats, and details steps that can be taken to minimize the spread of illness, like getting a flu vaccine and simple hand-washing using sanitizing gels.

The information also includes more serious steps in the event of an outbreak — like asking people to stay 3 to 6 feet away from others, isolating sick people from the healthy, and the voluntary and mandatory quarantine of people who have been exposed to an illness.

Since the first cases of avian or bird flu were detected in China in 1997, health officials worldwide have been actively planning a response. An emergency state appropriation of $6.3 million in 2006 enabled the health department to continue implementing an emergency response plan.

Health experts agree that there is a risk of an influenza pandemic, Fukino said.

"We hope it never happens, but stories about avian flu have us all wondering what we can do to protect the health and safety of ourselves and our families," Fukino said.

Hawai'i is stockpiling 358,000 doses of anti-viral medication, and a medical reserve corps program was launched to recruit volunteers to assist with a public health emergency.

Fukino said the state has been working over the past year with human-resource managers in the public and private sector to encourage them to examine sick-leave policies in the event employers have to work outside the normal routine.

Airlines also have been briefed on the need to be vigilant for sick fliers and to report concerns to health officials.

"We can't make them actually go in to have their temperature taken and have a checkup, but we strongly encourage them (to do so)," Wienert said.

2.2 MILLION U.S. DEATHS

The flu model used by the Trust for America's Health examines an outbreak as severe as the 1918 pandemic, which in modern terms could result in nearly 90 million Americans becoming sick and 2.2 million deaths.

People who become ill would be expected to take at least three weeks to recover, and others would miss significant time from work to care for family or staying home out of fear of potential exposure.

Based on estimates from financial and economic experts, the report examined the impact of a flu pandemic on 20 industries, trade and worker productivity.

The estimates focus on possible losses over the course of a year during a scenario when a vaccine is not widely available. A real pandemic could last up to 18 months with a series of waves that last six to eight weeks each.

Isle hotels and restaurants could suffer $958 million in losses, and entertainment and recreation activities could lose $131 million, the report said.

Other industries that could be expected to sustain major losses include transportation and warehousing ($345 million), retail ($100 million) and construction ($79 million).

A severe outbreak also could cost the state $1.4 billion in losses because of work force absenteeism and deaths. In addition to the 10,000 flu fatalities, it was estimated that 365,000 people would become ill during such an event.

Nationally, a severe pandemic flu outbreak could result in the second worst recession in the United States since World War II, with a 5.5 percent drop in the GDP, leading to an estimated $683 billion loss.

'U.S. IS NOT PREPARED'

States with government and real estate as major industries, such as Virginia and Maryland, could suffer the lowest percentage losses.

"The U.S. is not prepared to face an economic shock of this magnitude," said a statement by Jeff Levi, executive director of Trust for America's Health, a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization concerned about community health and disease prevention. "While important government preparedness efforts focusing mainly on medical and public health strategies are under way, efforts to prepare for the possible economic ramifications have been seriously inadequate. Stepping up nationwide pandemic preparedness planning is vital to our national and economic security."

The report was funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts as part of the U.S. Pandemic Preparedness Initiative.

The Trust for America's Health report recommends a series of measures businesses and community groups can take to prepare for a possible pandemic, focusing on how to sustain essential operating functions during a major outbreak.

These include examining and modifying family and medical leave policies; expanding tele-commuting capabilities so employees can work from home; assessing infection control procedures in the workplace; establishing contingency systems to maintain delivery of goods and services during a pandemic event; and updating methods for communicating with their workforce.

More information about Hawai'i's preparedness plan is available at www.hawaii.gov/health/panflu, or by calling Aloha United Way's 2-1-1 hot line.

Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com.