Anyone with even a vague interest in politics and the way folks think about major political issues should get their hands on a new publication out of the Pew Research Center for People and the Press.

The publication reports on more than two decades of public opinion surveys on political values and core attitudes held by the American electorate. The title of the most recent report says it all in a few blunt words: "Political Landscape More Favorable to Democrats."

Oh, great, you say. Another bunch of academic eggheads bashing Bush. Hardly. The independent Pew Research Center has no agenda other than trying to understand why citizens and voters think and act the way they do.

The trend lines and latest results should be of deep interest to anyone in Hawai'i who wants to understand why people vote the way they do.

Now, it is true that Hawai'i often takes its own path on public issues. Our diversity, isolation and unusual political history often set us apart from how the rest of the country thinks. But as much as we like to think that "Hawai'i is a special place," we are in most ways much like the rest of the nation.

And on those grounds, the news for local politicians and office-seekers is that a modestly progressive political stance is the one that makes the most sense these days.

It is unclear how much the latest survey results are tilted by growing public unhappiness with the war in Iraq, but there is no doubt that the latest Pew surveys show a definite tilt toward the issues traditionally associated with Democrats.

For instance, support for the idea that government should care for those who cannot care for themselves and that it should offer help to the needy even if it means greater debt is up sharply. On the flip side, agreement with "old-fashioned" values about family and marriage is down. There is increasing sympathy with hot-button social matters such as interracial dating and marriage and gay rights.

Lest Democrats get too cocky over these results, the Pew Center makes an important point: The shift in public attitudes is less about a growing romance with Democrats than it is with growing unhappiness with the Republican Party. This might be purely and simply the Bush factor.

What does this tell us about where politics might be headed in Hawai'i over the next election cycle? Expect local Republicans, traditionally somewhat on the liberal side of their party nationally, to become even more vocal about their independence, particularly on social issues.

Democrats can be expected to jump heavily on the Bush-bashing bandwagon, and they will try — as they did in the last election — to hang the currently unpopular president around the neck of any Republican audacious enough to stand for office.

Of course, this is 2007. Another terrorist attack, an unexpected success out of Washington or any number of factors could change the landscape before 2008. But for the moment, it's advantage: Democrats.

Reach Jerry Burris at jburris@honoluluadvertiser.com.