Evidence mounted yesterday that the housing recession could worsen as sales of existing homes in June fell to a nearly five-year low, and a real estate outlook predicted that new-home construction might not fully recover for at least three more years.

The National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that sales of existing homes dropped by 3.8 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million units. That is the slowest sales pace since November 2002 — and the decline was about twice what was expected.

The Commerce Department will release June figures today for sales of newly built homes, which are expected to be lower and to continue falling into 2008, says Dave Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.

Few markets have been spared from the housing downturn. On O'ahu, the news has been mixed, with sales of single-family homes and condominiums slowing in the first six months from a year earlier while median prices for homes and condos setting record prices last month.

The Federal Reserve Bank in San Francisco noted as much in a report yesterday, saying housing sales had slowed in many Western states but that "prices continued to rise in areas where local economic conditions remain strong, such as ... Hawai'i and the Seattle area."

Seiders says construction probably won't rebound completely till 2010 or 2011. That means housing will continue to exert a drag on the overall economy. How badly depends, in part, on the deteriorating picture in the mortgage industry.

The Realtors group said the median price for existing homes — the point where half cost more, half less — edged up 0.3 percent in June to $230,100.

But Seiders predicts that existing-home prices will fall a further 5 percent by year's end and slightly more in 2008.

"The ball is still rolling down the hill," Seiders says.