With the candidate filing deadline a year away, it appears that Mayor Mufi Hannemann may be cruising to reelection unopposed.

It would be the first time in modern history that an O'ahu mayoral election has gone uncontested and the latest disturbing sign that democracy in city elections has become little more than a formality.

In recent City Council elections, about half the incumbents ran unopposed and the rest faced only token opposition. Only term limits keep incumbents from becoming members for life, and the city Charter Commission last year tried unsuccessfully to abolish those.

If the mayor's race falls into the same dismal pattern, it will end a long history of spirited contests for the top job.

In 24 years as mayor, Frank Fasi had to face such formidable challengers as D.G. "Andy" Anderson, Eileen Anderson, Nelson Doi, Marilyn Bornhorst, Dennis O'Connor and Patsy Mink. Jeremy Harris had to face Arnold Morgado, Ann Kobayashi, Gary Gill, Fasi and Hannemann in his three runs for mayor.

This is not a judgment on whether Hannemann deserves to be re-elected, but a strong belief that no occupant of so high an office deserves to be re-elected without a stiff test. Voters deserve a referendum on the candidate and the issues he stands for.

Do voters support the $5 billion transit system that Hannemann has made the centerpiece of his administration? Do they buy his explanation that escalating taxes and fees are unavoidable because of neglect of the city's infrastructure by Harris?

Are they comfortable with his combative style — the fights he picks with the state and federal officials, his take-no-prisoner attacks on those who criticize his policies?

With the controversies Hannemann has been involved in following his thin 1,354-vote victory over Duke Bainum in 2004, you'd think he'd be an attractive target for ambitious politicians looking to move up.

But Hannemann has done an impressive job of consolidating his political power, raising more than $1 million in campaign funds already and lining up the support of most business and labor interests that weigh heavily in local elections.

And he's been tireless at old-fashioned politicking, showing up at events around the island to meet voters and tout the accomplishments of his administration.

His group at the Kailua Fourth of July parade waved signs that said, "We love Kailua. We paved Hamakua Drive."

It's had the desired effect of giving pause to potential challengers.

Bainum has spent most of his time since his bitter defeat tending to family businesses in Arkansas and Maryland and has shown no sign that he's interested in a rematch.

Councilmen Charles Djou and Donovan Dela Cruz have established themselves as leading critics of Hannemann's policies, but both appear to be ducking runs for mayor in favor of the safer route of shooting for lieutenant governor in 2010.

Former U.S. Rep. Ed Case has been approached by Hannemann detractors, but his greatest interest is state and federal issues and he says he couldn't commit to finishing a mayoral term if other opportunities arose.

Honolulu Prosecutor Peter Carlisle is a popular vote-getter on O'ahu who shows signs of eventually aspiring to higher office, but he appears focused on a run for re-election in 2008.

An uncontested mayoral race would be the final sign that democracy in city government is in real trouble, and it's time for a serious discussion of what to do.

The big culprit is the overwhelming importance of special-interest money and institutional support that are mostly unavailable to challengers.

The Legislature this year considered leveling the playing field for challengers by experimenting with publicly funded city elections, but backed away in the end.

David Shapiro, a veteran Hawai'i journalist, can be reached by e-mail at dave@volcanicash.net. Read his daily blog at blogs.honoluluadvertiser.com.