Honolulu could see the first trains of a massive fixed-guideway transit line running within five years, Mayor Mufi Hannemann said Tuesday, as he announced his choice for the first part of the system, a 20-mile route generally from East Kapolei to Ala Moana Center.

Hannemann recommended that the City Council approve a $3.6 billion "minimal operable segment" of the transit line that would start near the planned University of Hawai'i-West O'ahu campus and end at Ala Moana.

He said the entire segment could be running by 2017.

That means residents on the far ends of a longer route approved by the council in December — including Kapolei town, Salt Lake, UH-Manoa and Waikiki — may have to wait more than a decade, when more funds become available, to see their portion of the transit line completed.

"It's highly, highly concerning," said Grant Teichman, president of the Associated Students of the University of Hawai'i. "If the (Manoa campus) isn't included right off the bat, I don't think the mass transit system is going to be nearly as successful as it could have been."

The first segment of the line will serve both major population and employment centers in ways mandated by the Federal Transit Agency, which Hannemann hopes will pay up to $1 billion of the project's costs.

"I'm very sanguine and very optimistic that we are on the right track," said Hannemann, who briefed FTA officials on the city's transit progress last week in Washington, D.C. "It's critical that we break ground in 2009 and have the first portion of the line running by 2012."

The location of the first 7- to 10-mile portion of the line will be determined after a $10 million environmental impact study, he said. A 10-mile start in Kapolei would bring the first riders only as far as Waipahu.

"If we're lucky, we can get as far as Pearl City," Hannemann said.

"I've always said that we should start building from the west end, but I'm going to keep an open mind on that. I'll defer the final decision until I hear from the planners."

GREATEST NEED

The decision on where to start construction could be crucial to the eventual success of the project, planners said. While the need to ease traffic congestion and the relative open space of West O'ahu argue for starting construction there, Honolulu's denser population base and higher projected ridership could make an urban area a better place to begin, they said.

"It's best to start somewhere centrally, so it can do the most good for the most people," said UH engineering professor Panos Prevedouros. "Ridership will be very, very low from the west side until it reaches at least the airport."

Drive, then ride?

Jo Jordan, a Wai'anae Neighborhood Board member, is skeptical that ridership from the Leeward side will pick up, especially if Wai'anae residents have to drive eight miles to catch the train.

"I think the biggest issue was that they didn't want to get into their car, get to Kapolei, then get on a slow-moving vehicle to wherever they wanted to go," she said.

However, Jordan said she has heard many residents say they are glad that the transit system will bring jobs to their side of the island.

"They were glad about building it and having jobs, but it was quite evident they would not be riding it," she said.

Myrna Feliciano, interim director of the Waipahu Community Association, said residents are happy the line will pass their town, which they anticipate will bring economic benefits, as well as ease their commutes.

If congestion clears enough, Feliciano said she might consider working in Downtown Honolulu again. Today, the commute would be too much stress.

"Working in Waipahu, I gain three hours and that's a blessing for me," she said.

SECOND SEGMENT

Once the first segment is approved by the City Council, work will start this spring on a year-long environmental impact study that will cover all the transit sections not included in the initial construction, Hannemann said.

"We could proceed with those projects, if for example, more funds become available," he said. "My hope and desire is to build out the entire system. That's the goal."

While disappointed Salt Lake Boulevard would not be included in the first segment, resident and former state Rep. Len Pepper said he was glad the residents of the area had made their case enough to be included at least in the environmental impact study.

"Perhaps we did have some effect in this case," said Pepper, a member of the neighborhood board.

However, the environmental study will not include a Farrington Highway portion of the route in Kapolei that was approved by the City Council.

BUILDING RAIL YARD

The city has identified two possible sites for a transit base yard, where the rolling stock would be stored and maintained, Hannemann said. One site is near Leeward Community College and the other could be located on part of a sprawling new planned D.R. Horton housing development along Farrington Highway.

"You can't run rail without a rail yard," Prevedouros said. "That's why they have to start construction on that side because it's a crucial anchor to any system."

City officials also said they will defer a decision on which technology to use for the fixed-guideway transit system until preliminary engineering is completed and the city seeks offers from private developers interested in building the transit line.

"If you make a decision too early, you rule out the competitive advantage you have. If you choose one technology, you take everybody else out of the ballgame," said Toru Hamayasu, the city's chief transportation engineer.

Reach Mike Leidemann at mleidemann@honoluluadvertiser.com and Treena Shapiro at tshapiro@honoluluadvertiser.com.