President Bush last week announced a new strategy for Iraq. I believe his strategy will fail.

When our national leaders formulate a strategy, they begin by identifying the ends that they hope to achieve. In this fundamental aspect, our strategy has not changed at all. America's desired end state is an Iraq that is peaceful, united, democratic and secure. This all sounds perfectly nice and the president seems to assume that these are the asiprations of the Iraqi people as well, held back only by terrorists and other evildoers.

Is that critical assumption a valid one? Is this what Iraqis really want?

The concept of a united Iraq doesn't resonate with Iraqi Kurds at all. They have utterly no desire to be a part of Iraq. They want an independent Kurdistan and, to a large degree, they already have it. Although nominally a part of Iraq, the Kurdish Autonomous Region is about as close to an independent nation as it can be. Baghdad doesn't call the shots there, and the Kurds have their own flag, their own army, and their own somewhat democratic government. Try to stop this, and the Kurds will fight.

Iraqi Shi'a are all in favor of the rule of law, so long as that law is the Quran — there's no need for any other law, thank you. They love the democratic concept of majority rule, because they make up 60 percent of the population of Iraq. Unfortunately, they don't have much love for the 20 percent of their countrymen who happen to be Sunni, and they're quite willing to let the Kurds go their own way, too.

In fact, they rather admire the Kurdish model, so much so that they'd like to set up their own Shi'a superstate in the south ruled by Shari'a law. A united Iraq isn't a high priority for the average Shi'a. Neither is real democracy. Iraqi Shi'a will go to the polls as many times as they have to in order to put the ayatollahs in charge. Once that occurs, there won't be any need for further elections. Try to stop this, and the Shi'a will fight.

Iraqi Sunnis are the one faction truly in favor of a united Iraq because they want to run the whole country. That's exactly what they did from the fall of the Ottoman Empire until the fall of Saddam. Besides, there's no oil in the Sunni parts of Iraq. The Sunnis may be big on unity, but not so on democracy. After all, minority rule and democracy are rather hard to reconcile. The Sunnis want a united Iraq under the heel of their strongman, because that's the only way to subjugate the Kurds and the Shi'a. Try to stop this (as we have), and the Sunnis will fight.

An Iraq that is peaceful, united, democratic and secure would certainly be a wonderful thing for the United States and, in my opinion, a blessing for most Iraqis. Unfortunately, that isn't the country that Iraqis want. The United States can "surge" in tens of thousands of new troops and billions of reconstruction dollars, but we will never be able to shove our version of Iraq down the throats of 27 million unwilling Iraqis.

It is the Iraqis' folly, perhaps, not to embrace our vision for their country. It is our folly to spend yet more American blood and treasure in a vain attempt to force them to do so.

Retired Col. Thomas D. Farrell, a Honolulu resident, served as an Army intelligence officer in Iraq from June 2005 to May 2006. He wrote this commentary for The Advertiser.