CHICAGO — Joshua Sutherland beamed in amazement at the 6-inch bluegill he had managed to reel in from a small lagoon on one of the first casts of his young life.

"That was exciting," the 10-year-old said with a wide grin at a clinic for fishing neophytes. "It was cool!"

Asked whether he would fish again, he hesitated and said "Probably."

For the more than $40 billion-a-year recreational fishing industry, a lot is riding on whether kids like Joshua get hooked on the sport.

Long a favorite American outdoor activity, fishing has been slipping in popularity as a result of competition with video games and other options as well as the country's increased urbanization.

It's hardly a dying pastime; tens of millions of Americans still drop hook and line fairly regularly. But you can see a trend in the mostly older men who line the lagoon near Chicago's Lincoln Park with rod and reel on weekend days. That is worrisome for those who love the sport or make a living from it.

"The anglers are getting older — they're fishing less or dying off," said Steve Palmisano, 49, co-owner with his brother of Henry's Bait Shop, a South Side store started by their father in 1952. "We see some children, but not enough. We hope that they keep tugging on their parents' coattails and saying 'Take me fishing, take me fishing.' "

Fishing sales nationwide have stagnated, according to the results of a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service survey released in May.

The survey, conducted every five years, found that U.S. anglers spent $40.6 billion last year on trips, equipment, licenses and other items. That total, based on U.S. Census Bureau interviews with 31,500 people, was similar to 2001 but down 16 percent from 1996.

Perhaps more disturbing to those in the sport, it found a substantial dropoff in participation from the previous two surveys. The number of anglers declined 12 percent from five years earlier and 15 percent from 1996, with the steepest falloff — 30 percent — among Great Lakes anglers.

Even in Minnesota, which Fish and Wildlife identified as the leading state per capita in fishing participation, officials report a dramatic drop over the past 15 years in the number of people ages 16 to 44 buying licenses.

"The trends are showing that things are (still) downward," said Frank Peterson, president and CEO of the Recreational Boating and Fishing Foundation, a nonprofit founded in 1998 to try to halt the long-term decline. "I won't kid you. We are fighting some other circumstances — video games, and kids not being outdoors. But I think a lot has to do with how we approach it."

Mark Damian Duda of the outdoor research group Responsive Management in Harrisonburg, Va., said the nation's demographic shift away from rural locations to urban ones is the biggest reason for the change, with a related decrease in easy access to fishing spots. Then there's the plethora of other activities luring kids and parents alike.

"Thirty years ago, people would get up and go fishing," he said. "Now you get up and you have a soccer game at 9, a baseball game at 11, a team picnic at 1 — it's much more structured time. Video games also are part of it."

It's not only businesses suffering from the decline. Revenue from states' fishing licenses goes toward conservation, and a decline in anglers means less money for the cause.

Fishing's biggest backers cite positive signs, including a rise in spending on equipment such as rods, reels and tackle to $5.5 billion last year in the Fish and Wildlife survey. They also maintain that the study doesn't reflect a recent upturn in business in some areas.

The Outdoor Industry Association even pegged the number of U.S. anglers last year at roughly 51 million and holding steady when kids and those fishing without licenses are included, based on the trade group's own study. The American Sportfishing Association puts the total at about 40 million.

Bill Hilts, outdoor sports specialist for the Niagara Tourism and Convention Corporation in upstate New York, points to sizable increases in the numbers of those fishing in Lake Ontario in the past three years, including the highest number of participants in last fall's area trout and salmon derby in 10 years.

"It's far from dead," he said of the sport. "We're doing a lot of stuff to try to get more kids out there — little kids' fishing competitions, or activities that get single-parent families out there."