The latest news out of the U.S. Census contains intriguing demographic data about the state of Hawai'i.

It suggests that the population of white residents is up, while the population of Asian residents has declined slightly.

These numbers bear study on their own merits. But they are also of deep and abiding interest to people in the world of politics, the folks who calculate the angles in political campaigns.

It has long been felt in Hawai'i that ethnicity is a good early indicator of how a certain segment of the population will vote. The common assumption is that a white voter, everything else being equal, will tend to vote Republican. Asians, particularly Japanese-Americans, the single largest bloc in this category, have been generally loyal to Democrats

So, if the number of whites is up and the number of Asians is down among the general population, it should follow that this represents a bit of good news for the Republican Party. Right?

Perhaps, but not necessarily.

If race or ethnicity matters, it is likely to be because ethnicity is a marker for a variety of factors that guide a voter's behavior. If you are white, for instance, you are somewhat more likely to be new to the Islands. Thus, you have little vested interest in politics.

By the same token, if you are Asian, you are more likely to come from a longtime Hawai'i family, maybe two or more generations. Typically, someone in your extended family works for government, belongs to a union and tells tales around the dinner table about how the Democrats changed things for the better. So, it is understandable that Asians would tend to tilt to the Democrats.

The one exception to this is newly arrived Asians, who are still trying to sort out where their best political interests lie. These groups — Filipinos, for instance — tend to vote heavily for someone of their own ethnic heritage if a suitable candidate of the right ethnicity is on the ballot.

The correlation between ethnicity and voting behavior among other groups is less clear, although Japanese voters tend to favor Japanese candidates (because they are Democrats?) and Caucasians tilt a little bit toward white candidates in unfocused races.

In truth, the biggest indicator of voter behavior appears to be family income. More family income, more likely you will vote Republican or for the conservative candidate. Lower family income, the more likely you will vote Democratic.

And that makes sense, doesn't it? In a cliche sort of way, Republicans stand for protecting wealth; Democrats stand for redistributing it.

Reach Jerry Burris at jburris@honoluluadvertiser.com. Read his daily blog at blogs.honoluluadvertiser.com.