NEW YORK — The subprime loan "debacle" will make it more difficult for borrowers to get mortgages and could cause U.S. home prices to fall this year for the first time on record, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday.

The 2007 median price for an existing home is forecast to decline 0.7 percent to $220,300, the first drop since the real-estate trade group began keeping records in 1968 and probably the first decline since the Great Depression, said Lawrence Yun, an economist with the Chicago-based association.

The median price for new homes is projected to increase 0.4 percent to $246,200 this year, the smallest gain since prices fell in 1991.

Home purchases are being derailed as subprime lenders stop funding mortgages or go out of business, increasing inventory and weakening demand, Yun said. At least 40 subprime lenders have halted operations, gone out of business or sought buyers in the past year amid rising borrower defaults.

"We've been getting reports from Realtors out in the field about home closings not going through at the last minute because of loan problems," Yun said in an interview. "That impacts all homeowners because it affects prices."

On April 2, Irvine, Calif.-based New Century Financial Corp., the largest independent subprime lender, filed for bankruptcy.

Yesterday's report said the "fallout from the subprime loan debacle" will delay the housing market's recovery until 2008.

New-home sales probably will decline 16 percent to 904,000, while existing-home sales are likely to fall 2 percent to 6.34 million in 2007 from 6.48 million last year, the NAR said.

A month ago, the real-estate group predicted a 1.2 percent gain in the median price of a resold home, which would have surpassed 2006's 1 percent increase, and a 1.7 percent gain in the new-home median price, close to last year's 1.9 percent growth.

"The subprime problems led us to revise our forecast much lower," Yun said.

Next year, existing-home prices probably will gain 1.6 percent and new homes likely will increase by 2 percent, the report said. Both would beat the gains of 2006, the first year of slumping sales and prices after five record-breaking years.

Mortgage rates probably won't increase this year, according to the report. The 2007 average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage will match 2006's 6.4 percent, and the average for a 30-year annually adjusting mortgage probably will stay at last year's 5.5 percent, the forecast said. Next year, the average fixed rate probably will be 6.6 percent and the annually adjusting rate 5.2 percent, the report said.

Subprime loans are made to borrowers with a history of missed payments, untested credit or heavy debt. Lenders charge more than conventional mortgage companies because borrowers are more likely to default. About a fifth of U.S. loans are given to subprime borrowers, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Subprime borrowers in the U.S. are falling behind on their payments at the highest rate in four years, the Washington-based bankers' group said in a March 13 report.