Visitor arrivals this year should be essentially flat, matching last year's record 7.5 million visitors, according to a state estimate released yesterday.

The number of visitors to Hawai'i this year is expected to rise 0.3 percent, which is down from an August forecast of 2 percent growth. Still, visitor spending should improve by 5.4 percent this year to $12.5 billion, the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism reported in its final economic forecast of the year.

Overall, DBEDT expects continued but slowing economic growth for Hawai'i through the rest of 2006 and into 2007 as rising inflation eats into consumers' purchasing power. However, continued strength in construction and other sectors should maintain the growth of the overall economy, despite anemic visitor arrival growth.

"Because of our vibrant economy, we are able to sustain solid job and income growth in Hawai'i, despite some slowdown in residential housing activity and lower-than-expected growth in tourism," said DBEDT director Ted Liu.

Estimated growth rates for real income and real gross state product, which are figures adjusted for inflation, for 2006 were unchanged in DBEDT's latest forecast. Real income in 2006 is forecast to rise 2.1 percent. Real gross state product is expected to rise 2.7 percent this year.

Honolulu's consumer price index forecast was also left unchanged at 4.8 percent in 2006. Total wage and salary job growth is expected to be 2.5 percent in 2006 and 1.5 percent in 2007.

The DBEDT report also said state tax revenues, which reflect the state's economic health, remain positive.

Reach Sean Hao at shao@honoluluadvertiser.com.