Those who say a HOT lane structure can be built much cheaper than is shown in the Alternatives Analysis are not telling the truth. We don't dispute the cost of building a HOT viaduct in Tampa, which was originally projected to be $300 million and skyrocketed to more than $420 million.

But Honolulu is not Tampa.

The advocates of HOT lanes, none of whom are Hawai'i-licensed engineers, scribbled what they think is the cost of constructing a similar viaduct in Honolulu on the back of an envelope.

On the other hand, the city commissioned a group of professional Hawai'i-licensed engineers and cost estimators to calculate the material and labor of construction using the latest unit costs. The same unit costs were used to calculate both the HOT and the fixed guideways, so that those two projects can be compared on an equal basis.

In other words, if the cost of the HOT lane is cheaper, so too is the cost of the rail alternatives. The city stands by its cost estimates of $2.6 billion for a 16-mile two-lane HOT viaduct from Waiawa to Iwilei, not $1 billion as is being claimed by the non-engineers.

TRUTH ABOUT FINANCING

Toll revenue alone from the HOT viaduct will not pay for the construction. It is not happening in Tampa and it will not happen in Honolulu. Tampa's HOT viaduct is carrying 4,000 cars per day. That's 33 percent less than predicted. To put this in perspective, Honolulu's Makiki Street carries more than 4,000 cars a day. Therefore, the Tampa HOT viaduct is not generating nearly enough money to pay even for the interest on its bond. It is heavily subsidized by revenues from other toll roads. In Honolulu, it is estimated that the toll revenue would pay only 23 percent ($1.5 billion) of the bond needed, and the rest ($5.2 billion) has to be paid by other revenues such as property tax for the next 35 years. A HOT viaduct is not eligible for the federal transit funds and, according to the OMPO's long-range plan, there is no federal highway fund available for a HOT viaduct for the next 25 years. Therefore, the entire amount will have to be borne by O'ahu taxpayers. There are a few who say a private partnership will pay for it. It would be interesting to see if they can find a private partner who would want to lose $5.2 billion over next 35 years.

TRUTH ABOUT TRAFFIC

The city predicts about 20,000 cars will be using the 16-mile HOT viaduct daily in the year 2030. The way it was proposed by the HOT lane advocates, there are no off ramps on the HOT viaduct from Aloha Stadium to Iwilei, so all 20,000 cars will be exiting downtown. The same HOT lane advocates do not have answers when asked what happens to those cars after exiting the HOT viaduct. The answer is simple — they get stuck in the traffic congestion much worse than any other alternatives. It would take additional billions of dollars to solve that congestion problem. Imagine what it would take to widen King, Beretania, Queen, Liliha streets, Nimitz Highway, and Ala Moana. And those cars will need parking spaces in town, too. Does this sound like a desirable solution? Is Councilman Charles Djou serious about this as the desirable solution?

The Alternatives Analysis shows that that there will be less congestion in the corridor studied with a fixed guideway than without one, and there will be less congestion with a fixed guideway as compared with any of the other alternatives studies, including a HOT lane. HOT is not the traffic congestion reliever that the advocates would have you believe, especially if you cannot afford to pay the tolls that could be as much as $8 dollars each way every day.

Rail is simply the better alternative. It is public transportation, not a multi-billion dollar expense to accommodate gas-guzzling environment-polluting privately owned vehicles.

Each and every analysis of alternatives for the Honolulu High Capacity Transit Corridor done over the past decades concludes that a fixed guideway system is the best alternative. The only thing that has changed is that traffic congestion has grown worse and will continue to do so. As Mayor Mufi Hannemann has said, a state-funded HOT lane could possibly complement a rail system for Honolulu, but it can't stand on its own.

It's no wonder Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio is now touting light rail for her city.

Toru Hamayasu is the chief planner for the Honolulu Department of Transportation Services. He wrote this commentary for The Advertiser.