Mana Feiloaki patiently shellacked a carved-wood warrior image in his kiosk in the International Market Place and needed just one word to sum up the state of Japanese business during Golden Week 2006.

"Slow," he said, then added for emphasis: "Real slow."

Japanese arrivals were expected to be off 9 percent to 10 percent compared to last year's Golden Week and the predictions have become reality among Hawai'i retailers, hotels and tour operations.

"Unfortunately, it is as we expected," said Yujiro Kuwabara, general manager of the Japanese travel agency JTB in Hawai'i.

A drop in Japanese room occupancy has translated into slower business at Hilton's hotel restaurants, said Cynthia Rankin, regional director of public relations for Hilton Hawai'i.

"Golden Week has dropped," Rankin said. "It's not like it used to be."

Japan Airlines holds about 60 percent of the Japanese travel market to the Islands and expects to fly 26,259 Japanese tourists to Hawai'i during the 10 days that make up this year's Golden Week.

The annual period includes the Japanese holidays Greenery Day, Constitution Memorial Day, children's day and the so-called "between day" national holiday — and this year stretched from April 26 to yesterday, with travel days today and tomorrow.

"Last year we had a pretty good Golden Week because people were not traveling to China because of anti-Japanese demonstrations and to Southeast Asia in the aftermath of the tsunami," said Gilbert Kimura, spokesman for Japan Airlines. "This year we're down 11.6 percent."

While Japanese tourism has fallen, there is no shortage of theories for this year's sluggish Golden Week, including: fewer available hotel rooms and airline seats, fuel surcharges of $190 to $200 from Japan, lack of interest among repeat Japanese tourists to visit Hawai'i again, and aggressive marketing from other destinations.

Like others, Hawai'i's tourism liaison, Marsha Weinert, believes that savvy Japanese travelers are no longer waiting just until Golden Week to travel to the Islands when they can find better bargains during other parts of the year.

But Kuwabara of JTB believes the dates of Japanese holidays played a strong role this year.

With the various holidays that make up Golden Week separated by more weekdays this year, Kuwabara shares the theory that many would-be Hawai'i travelers from Japan instead chose shorter trips closer to home.

"The biggest factor is the calendar," Kuwabara said. "Unlike Obon or New Year's, Golden Week is just a series of holidays that fall on different days each year."

While Japanese travel to Hawai'i is off 11.6 percent during this year's Golden Week, Japan Airlines at the same time will see a 4.8 percent increase in all outbound Japanese travel.

China will receive 11.5 percent more visitors on Japan Airlines and 12 separate destinations in Southeast Asia also will get a total of an 11.5 percent boost, Kimura said.

"The Japanese economy is improving, consumer confidence is up — they're starting to spend money," Kimura said.

"They're starting to travel again and hopefully that will benefit Hawai'i."

So Japanese tourists like Ichiro Nakamori, 37, of Tokyo, his wife, Mutsumi, 37, and their 2-year-old son, Kei, have become highly coveted during their sixth Hawai'i trip during this year's Golden Week.

The allure is simple for Ichiro: "The warm weather."

But Toshiyuki Moribayashi, 38, of Osaka, and his wife, Sono, 35, and their 5-year-old son, Rei, are in even more demand because of their favorite activity in the Islands.

"Shopping, shopping, shopping," Toshiyuki said, as he jokingly pointed at his wife.

For whatever reasons that have caused this year's sluggish Golden Week, Jennie Ton knows only that sales to Japanese tourists are down at the shell and jewelry kiosk where she works.

"There's a lot fewer Japanese than last year," Ton said. "A lot fewer."

Reach Dan Nakaso at dnakaso@honoluluadvertiser.com.