SCHOFIELD BARRACKS — Mamdouh Moriss Eldalil, an Egyptian American who teaches Arabic, is part drill instructor and part boisterous uncle as he exhorts Sgt. Arthur Ireland to recite the alphabet.

"Alf, bah, tah, sah, geem, ha, kh ... ," the Kailua man reels off in his best Arabic, until he gets stuck.

"Oh, man, you're putting me on the spot here," the 23-year-old says in front of the class and two reporters.

"Say again!" barks Eldalil. "He did it today."

Eldalil is proud of his students and what they've been able to accomplish in five days of classes, each of which is four hours.

Arabic for soldiers scheduled to deploy to Iraq this summer is a tool: "The power to protect yourself," Eldalil says to the class.

It's not clear, though, whether Ireland will get to use his newfound Arabic skills in Iraq.

With the nation today marking the third anniversary of the start of the Iraq War, 7,000 Schofield Barracks soldiers are prepping for their role this August in the war's fourth year.

More than 1,000 Kane'ohe Bay Marines, meanwhile, are now on their way to Iraq.

As the increasingly unpopular war ticks on, and the American death toll keeps corresponding time, a combination of forces are at work that could mean a substantial reduction in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, less exposure to danger and a changing mission that puts Iraqi forces out front.

The coming months also could bring all-out civil war with the United States stuck in the middle in what has been described as a make or break year in Iraq.

For deploying Hawai'i service members and their families, the way ahead has tremendous uncertainty. There also is anticipation of momentous change.

Lance Cpl. Victor Villasenor, 23, a helicopter mechanic who left with 106 other Hawai'i Marines on Tuesday for Al Asad Air Base in western Iraq, said he sees the U.S. mission there winding down.

"Just from what I see in the news, and from what I hear from other Marines, you don't hear of as many of the bad things happening —not to say something won't continue," said Villasenor, who is from Costa Mesa, Calif.

Service members are taught not to be too opinionated with the press, especially when it comes to any criticism of the war. A Zogby International poll found that 72 percent of American troops serving in Iraq think the U.S. should exit the country in the next year.

Villasenor, a young, single, and gung-ho Marine heading out on his first combat deployment, doesn't have a problem with going to Iraq.

"I'm stoked," he said as he and other Marines gathered up gear in a hangar at the Marine Corps base for a charter flight out. "I'm glad to finally get off the island and go somewhere and put in my effort towards the war. That's pretty much what a lot of the Marines in the unit are thinking."

Lance Cpl. Zachary Augustine, 20, from Shelby, Neb., also was among the shrinking group of Marines who hadn't gone to war.

"To me, it means a lot because I signed up knowing I want to serve my country," he said. "I'm kind of happy to go and say I was part of Iraqi Freedom."

Ame Frey, whose husband, Capt. Shayne Frey, 33, left last week on his second seven-month combat tour of Iraq, knows there are no guarantees. She doesn't worry excessively about the prospect of civil war. Nor does she have a lot of expectation for a sizable drawdown of U.S. forces.

Her husband has been in the Marine Corps for 15 years. She was in Hawai'i when a CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter went down in a sandstorm last year on Jan. 26 in western Iraq, killing 26 Hawai'i Marines and one sailor.

The couple has two children, ages 6 and 2. Shayne Frey recorded bedtime stories on tape for his kids including "Things That Fly" and "Dora The Explorer."

"There's hope there (about Iraq), but we could wake up tomorrow and things could be completely different," Ame Frey said. "There are no guarantees that tomorrow the sun comes up and there is not all-out civil war (in Iraq). Unfortunately, that's our reality."

MORE WAR — OR PEACE?

If 7,000 Schofield soldiers head to Iraq for a year as scheduled, and without any units having their deployment canceled or getting orders to remain in Kuwait, the Army deployment will mark the largest from the state to date.

About 5,200 Schofield soldiers served in Iraq in 2004. About 2,200 Hawai'i National Guard and Reserve soldiers were deployed to the country in 2005.

Seventy-seven service members with Hawai'i ties have been killed in Iraq since the March 19, 2003, start of the war. As of Friday, the Pentagon reported 2,313 U.S. personnel killed in Iraq, and 17,124 wounded.

The latest anticipated overall Hawai'i troop commitment grows to more than 8,000 with the more than 1,000 Marines of the 3rd Battalion, 3rd Marine Regiment, and Marine Heavy Helicopter Squadron 463.

The Kane'ohe Bay Marines and 10 CH-53D Sea Stallion helicopters are either in theater or on the way. Schofield will contribute 90 to 100 more Black Hawk and Chinook helicopters to the fight.

Lt. Gen. Peter Chiarelli, who directs more than 133,000 U.S. troops as commander of Multinational Corps Iraq, said via teleconference with Washington reporters on Friday that "the possibility of civil war may be higher today than it has been in the last three years" after a spate of sectarian killings and the Feb. 22 bombing of the Shiite Askariya shrine in Samarra.

Yet he also said he believes "we are still far away from such an event" with most Iraqis not taking part in sectarian violence.

Chiarelli also said that, with progress being made in the training of Iraqi security forces, he expects 75 percent of Iraq to be turned over to Iraqi units by late summer.

John Pike, director of Virginia-based defense think tank GlobalSecurity.org, said Iraq "could turn into a genocidal civil war with unexpected suddenness" if there is another event like the Samarra mosque bombing.

Civil war still would lead to a "substantial" troop reduction with the U.S. not wanting to be caught in the middle, Pike says.

Loren Thompson, a defense analyst with the Lexington Institute, also in Virginia, also expects a big troop withdrawal.

"I think that there is a perceptible push in Washington to begin reducing the U.S. presence in Iraq," he said. "If you talk to the senior military officers, they believe that a drawdown of forces is going to begin in the very near future."

Thompson said he sees the total number falling below 100,000 by the end of the year, given no more major blowups. Part of the reason is the increasing capability of Iraqi forces. Domestic political opposition to the war also is widespread, he said.

The president and senior military officials were to meet two weeks ago to decide whether to alter plans and not send units of the 1st, 2nd and Schofield's 25th Infantry divisions to Iraq this spring and summer.

'YES, WE'RE GOING'

Despite talk of deployment cancellations, Schofield spokesman Kendrick Washington said training continues. The soldiers are expected to head next month to California to the National Training Center at Fort Irwin.

"For us, there is no uncertainty. We're going (to Iraq)," Washington said. "You can't prepare your soldiers for war any other way than, 'Yes, we're going.' "

About 500 soldiers from the 45th Sustainment Brigade and 2,400 soldiers from the 25th Combat Aviation Brigade are among the 7,000 Hawai'i soldiers with deployment orders. The list also includes the 3rd Brigade Combat Team and division headquarters.

Maj. Gen. Benjamin R. Mixon, the commander of the 25th Infantry Division, is expected to be in charge of military operations in northern Iraq. Mixon previously said he'll be in charge of four to five brigades, one of which will be the 3rd Brigade from Hawai'i.

The Multinational Division North-Central region includes four provinces north of Baghdad with more than 6 million Iraqis, and the cities of Samarra, Kirkuk, Tikrit and Mosul.

A brigade of about 3,500 soldiers with the 1st Armored Division was stationed in Kuwait last year as a contingency force, and a battalion of about 700 soldiers was moved to Baghdad after recent sectarian killings.

Pike said he believes the U.S. will seek to keep more troops in Kuwait, leaving open that possibility for some Schofield soldiers.

But new forces will have to rotate into Iraq, and experts believe Mixon's division headquarters will be among them.

A SAFER SCENARIO

As more Iraqi forces take the lead, the more U.S. troops can act in a backup role, and the less they will have to face the danger of roadside bombs. Helicopters are expected to have a continued major role.

"I think they (U.S. troops) are basically hoping that they'll be able to spend more time hanging out of helicopters, and less time driving in Humvees," Pike said.

Marine Lance Cpl. Adam Camargo, 22, from Chicago, a crew chief with the CH-53D squadron who also deployed to Iraq with five of the Hawai'i helicopters in 2004 and 2005, said the unit will cover for CH-46 Sea Knights, which go into hotter zones.

"Now, we're going to more dangerous territory than we went before," he said, "so I expect there to be more action."

Ireland, the Schofield soldier who was learning the Arabic alphabet, said he doesn't pay attention to the politics of the Iraq war. He said he feels good serving his country.

Ireland, a 2000 Kalaheo High graduate, is with the 524th Combat Service Support Battalion. He was in Iraq in 2004 and 2005 with another unit.

"I think it's good that we're starting to move toward giving them (the Iraqis) their country back," Ireland said. "I guess you can kind of mirror it off Kosovo, but we've been in Kosovo for a long time."

TRAINING CONTINUES

Staff Sgt. Michael Stainback, 28, from Baraboo, Wis., also was in the Arabic class.

"Go ahead, read. Loudly!" Eldalil told him.

Stainback ran through phrases like, "Nazel shlahak that" (Drop your weapons), "Et kaleem be bout" (Speak slowly), and "La tat harak" (Do not move).

Talk of a drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq or civil war doesn't change anything for Stainback.

"We still train to go as if everything is the same, and if it does change, we'll adjust to the changes," he said. "Whether there's civil war or not, we're still going, and we still train the same way."

Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com.