At least eight lawmakers and possibly more will not be returning to their seats in the Hawai'i Legislature next session, leaving open several key leadership positions.

Those are the known departures, with the latest announcement from Maui's Republican Rep. Chris Halford yesterday. More changes will likely be in the offing as House members and some senators face challenges to their re-election and one could win a seat in Congress.

But, even at this early stage, the prospects of a major shift of political power are nonexistent. The departures are expected to have little impact on the 80-20 breakdown of Democrats and Republicans in both houses, although some seats could shift.

Of the eight who have announced their departures, two are in the 25-member Senate and six will give up seats in the 51-member House.

After 14 years in the Senate, Sen. Brian Kanno announced on the final day of the session this year that he would be finishing up his master's degree in social work and seeking a job in the field instead of returning to his seat.

That could mean a political shift in leadership for the district and the loss of a strong pro-labor leader as head of the Senate Labor Committee, said Dan Boylan, a political analyst and history professor at the University of Hawai'i.

Among those already signed up to compete for Kanno's West O'ahu seat is former Honolulu City Councilman Mike Gabbard, who as a member of the Republican minority would not be eligible to head the Labor Committee.

"You couldn't get much more liberal than Brian. So likely a more conservative person will take that position," Boylan said.

The Senate will also be losing Sen. Bob Hogue, R-24th (Kailua, Kane'ohe), who is among several politicians running for the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Ed Case.

But while the district has on occasion gone Democrat, it is more likely that the Republicans will hold the seat, Boylan said.

Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, D-21st (Nanakuli, Makaha), who heads the Judiciary and Hawaiian Affairs Committee, is also among those leaders in the Senate who are seeking Case's spot in Congress.

A win would mean Hanabusa, who wields considerable power in the Senate, would need to give up her state seat. Unlike some legislators in the race, however, her term doesn't end this year and she doesn't have to give up her seat to run for Congress.

Her departure would be among the biggest leadership losses to the Legislature if it happens, Boylan said.

Rep. Brian Schatz will be leaving his spot to be a candidate for Congress. He'll be vacating the vice chairmanship of the House Water, Land and Ocean Resources Committee, which is also losing its chairman with the retirement of Rep. Ezra Kanoho.

Kanoho is one of three veteran leaders to be retiring from the House, including Rep. Dennis Arakaki, who heads the Health Committee, and Rep. Helene Hale, who leads the International Affairs Committee.

"That creates a major vacuum. I think it's about, if you add it all up, close to about 50 years of public service that we'll be missing," said House Speaker Calvin Say, D-20th (St. Louis Heights, Palolo, Wilhelmina Rise).

And with the arrival of the new as yet to be elected legislators will begin the new cycle of educating members so that they feel comfortable with the issues, said Say, who has been a member of the House for about 30 years and has seen the full cycle many times.

Among the biggest issues that the Legislature could face next year is how the state will form a new Native Hawaiian government should a bill granting them a degree of self-government get federal approval this fall, he said.

Legislators will also need to contend with filling the financial gaps left behind by federal cuts in funding, including in education, human services and veterans services, he said.

Say, however, wouldn't discuss who he feels will likely rise to fill the departing legislators' shoes.

"At this point, first and foremost, like I've shared with the members of the majority caucus: Please get re-elected first," he said.