Hawai'i's Sept. 23 primary election is two months away, but more than three of every 10 voters likely will cast their ballots long before then.

The growing popularity of absentee voting — especially by mail — is changing the dynamics of elections here and on the Mainland, as more voters opt for convenience and forgo the civic ritual of trooping to the polls on the same day. Absentee voting by mail will begin in late August, while walk-in absentee voting begins Sept. 11.

"When I vote absentee, I don't have to worry about fighting the crowd or anything on election day," Liliha resident Doug Pang said. "The mail-in way is even easier. I've done it both ways."

The number of Hawai'i voters who cast absentee ballots early has more than tripled in the past decade, and totaled more than 133,000 in the 2004 general election, state records show.

Such changes in voting habits could play a decisive role in some races, and are leading to longer campaign seasons and aggressive targeting of specific groups of voters. For well-organized campaigns, the goal is to identify their support bases early and try to get votes "in the bank" before election day.

"Once you get that vote in, the opposition can't change it," said longtime Honolulu pollster and campaign consultant Don Clegg.

That can protect candidates from the effects of last-minute attacks and smears, but it can also mean that voters haven't heard important information that could change their mind about a candidate.

"A lot can happen in the last five days before an election," Clegg said. "It's probably one of the most significant times for things to happen that take a candidate out. Typically, strategy says that if you've got something that you think is devastating, don't give the opposition any chance to respond. So you don't throw it out until the last weekend. You miss all that if you vote absentee."

BUSY LIFESTYLE

More than 30 percent of votes cast in the 2004 primary and general elections were by absentee ballot, up from just over 9 percent in 1992, according to election returns. And officials say the trend is likely to continue, stretching "election day" over several weeks.

"A lot more people are using the option of voting prior to election day because it best accommodates their busy lifestyle, or they simply find that voting that way is more convenient," said state voter services coordinator Rex Quidilla. "Absentee voting has really skyrocketed."

More than 70,000 O'ahu voters requested absentee mail ballots for the 2004 general election, and 29,000 more voted early in person, said Honolulu elections administrator Glen Takahashi. This year, the city sent absentee voter applications to all voting O'ahu households.

Traditionally, absentee voting was an option for people who would be out of town on election day, or were disabled and could not easily make it the polls. But Hawai'i and dozens of other states have steadily discarded such restrictions and allowed anyone to vote early without stating a reason.

The option proved so popular in Oregon that voters decided in 1998 to hold that state's elections entirely by mail — the first and only state to do so. More than 3 million California voters — about four out of every 10 — now regularly cast absentee ballots by mail, and more are expected to join them this year. Since 2002, California has also allowed voters to declare themselves "permanent absentees," meaning they will receive a mail-in ballot for every election without having to request one.

CAMPAIGN STRATEGY

Now, a critical part of any well-funded campaign strategy in California is to identify committed voters who are likely to support a given candidate, mail them campaign literature and an absentee ballot application, and follow up later to make sure they've voted, said Bay Area political consultant Frank Gallagher.

"If you have enough money, you can identify your supporters and get those votes in the bank before election day via the absentee ballot, and that's incredibly important," he said.

In close races, rounding up absentee votes can easily make the difference between victory and defeat, Gallagher said. But it also adds significantly to the cost of running campaigns, and means effective ones must launch their efforts earlier than before.

"It all comes down to money: If you don't have it, you're in deep trouble," Gallagher said.

That's not always the case in Hawai'i, and campaign strategies must be tailored to fit the electoral district and office a candidate is seeking, according to Clegg. For example, state House districts are relatively small. So personally knocking on doors and meeting with voters is still the best way to campaign, he said.

MONEY, PERSONAL TOUCH

But targeting absentee voters can help, and it can be a vital part of campaigns for offices that represent large districts or the whole state, Clegg said. The technique is especially important in "precious precincts," or those with the most voters who are likely to support a given candidate, he said.

The strategy can be cost-effective because the campaign spends money trying to turn out the vote of known supporters, rather than on advertising to win the support of potential voters in general, he said. And by following up to determine how many supporters have voted early, a campaign can decide what it must still do in order to win.

University of Hawai'i political science professor Ira Rohter said he's concerned that aggressive targeting of absentee voters will rely more on money and organization than on issues and human interaction.

"It's become less and less a people-involving operation, and more can be substituted by money," he said. "That's the scary part. People have to raise all this money to replicate what used to be, in Hawai'i, a really grassroots campaign."