If you didn't know any better, you'd assume that in America we secretly loathe our greatest movies — why else would we subject them to the demeaning, nauseatingly superficial ritual known as Oscar prognosticating?

When I went to an early screening of Terrence Malick's "The New World," my first reaction was one of almost giddy pleasure. It felt too good to be true that this notoriously reclusive artist had delivered a film that is not only a spellbinding portrait of our country's origins, but a singularly personal meditation on romance.

Of course, my next reaction brought me down to earth. What would happen to Malick's film when it was ground through the sausage factory of Oscar blogs and Web sites that have transformed the Academy Awards from a celebration of movies into a silly exercise in ouija-board-style predictions and lamebrained analysis? In other words, forget about the artistry of "The New World" — let's get to the musings you can expect from Oscar pundits: Haven't films set in the 19th century won more best pictures than movies set in the 17th century? What are the movie's chances when no best picture winner over the last 25 years has won without a lead actor in serious contention for an actor prize? And, of course, will the academy punish Malick for refusing to participate in the humiliating spectacle known as Oscar campaigning?

If you think I'm exaggerating, you haven't been reading many Oscar bloggers lately. They don't even need to see the movie to declare it a best picture favorite — or a nonstarter. MovieCityNews' David Poland wrote a recent column in which he proclaimed, after seeing the trailer of "Munich," that the film "is a prohibitive front-runner to win the Academy Award for Best Picture." (This from the guy who said "The Phantom of the Opera" was the only movie that could beat "The Aviator" in last year's Oscar race.) In the midst of comparing "Munich's" best-picture chances with those of "Memoirs of a Geisha," Poland offers this sage analysis: "Oh boy, is there a lot of death in the movies that have won (Oscars). Only four of the last 25 winners do not have death or war as a central part of the story. I'm sure someone will die dramatically in 'Geisha,' but 'Munich' wins the body count hands down."

This arrived after Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeffrey Wells (the Lewis Black of Oscar bloggers) dismissed the movie's chances, also solely on seeing the trailer. As he put it: "the whole 'wait for "Munich" ... this is the big one ... Oscar! Oscar!' drumbeat is based on little more than a generic knee-jerk Spielberg kowtow. ... Watch the teaser and explain to me how it makes 'Munich' look even a little bit challenging or startling ... it looks like a guilty license-to-kill so-whatter."

Of course, the Los Angeles Times is in the Oscar business too, thanks to our new awards-oriented Web site, the Envelope, which in its first weeks of existence has offered a deluge of Oscar prognosticating. Our lead pundit, Gold Derby's Tom O'Neil, is a master of the breathless overstatement, offering scoops on such weighty matters as the Oscar acting category George Clooney will campaign for in "Syriana." First O'Neil trumpeted the news that Clooney was "definitely going to lead and screening tattletales claim he's got a real shot at winning," adding as compelling evidence that the actor not only gives a "powerhouse" performance but has "that whole body transformation thing going on. Voters love it when pretty stars go ugly."

Just the other day, O'Neil was back with another newsflash, saying that "Clooney's Oscar campaign strategy has flip-flopped" and that he's now going after best supporting actor. O'Neil's "scoops" were roundly lambasted by rival bloggers, with Oscar Watch's Sasha Stone saying it best: "The Envelope's Tom O'Neil is reporting his 'exclusive' news with as much pomp and circumstance as Vanity Fair reported Deep Throat was really Mark Felt. OH MY GOD, HE'S GOING SUPPORTING??!!!!!!"

It's hard to say most of the time where the predictions end and the mud-wrestling begins. Before the virtual ink was dry on LA Weekly columnist Nikki Finke's Web scoop — she had "insiders" saying Steven Spielberg wouldn't run an Oscar campaign for "Munich" — the Envelope's Oscar Beat columnist Steve Pond fired back, saying that "according to a source closely involved with the 'Munich' campaign, Finke's information is 'not remotely' accurate."

Nearly everyone today, including the mainstream media, has become obsessed with handicapping the Oscars.

For anyone who loves the cinema, it's hard not to feel a pang of sadness. Having already suffered for years over people's obsession with opening weekend box-office tabulations, we now see our best, most ambitious films treated like a horse in the third race at Hollywood Park. A trophy for the winner, a trip to the glue factory for the losers. We've become a nation of handicappers and, if you hadn't guessed already, it's not just an insult to the Oscars, but to those who make the movies, too.