U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye gave a pessimistic assessment of Hawai'i's chances of getting the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, saying, "frankly, at this point, I would not assume that it would be here."

"It would appear at this juncture that the place that has facilities that could take in the ship with minimal renovations would be Puget Sound" in Washington state, Inouye told The Advertiser last week.

During a stop in Honolulu last week, Navy Secretary Donald C. Winter said the Nimitz-class nuclear aircraft carrier would be homeported at one of four Pacific locations: Hawai'i, Guam, San Diego or Puget Sound.

Hawai'i's senior senator, the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Defense subcommittee, said the decision still has to be made, and he doesn't know what location will be selected, but, "I don't want my constituents to start spending money now on the possibility it's going to be here.

"I think the people of Hawai'i would expect me to be as realistic as possible and frank."

The 1,092-foot flattop, with a crew and air wing of about 5,600 and 85 aircraft, is undergoing nuclear reactor refueling and overhaul at the Northrop Grumman Newport News shipyard in Virginia, a process that will take another three years.

Winter said he will decide in April or May where to base the Carl Vinson, which had been homeported in Bremerton, Wash., before deploying in January 2005. The carrier, known as Gold Eagle, arrived at Naval Station Norfolk after completing a seven-month around-the-world trip.

Inouye's assessment is not good news for the Chamber of Commerce of Hawai'i, which supported the Hawai'i basing proposal in part because of the millions of dollars the move would pump into the local economy and jobs that would be created.

For several years, military officials said a carrier might be based at either Hawai'i or Guam to decrease the sailing time to potential hot spots such as the Philippines, Indonesia, the Taiwan Strait or North Korea.

Jim Tollefson, president of the Chamber of Commerce of Hawai'i, said the business group still strongly supports homeporting a carrier here.

"Obviously, we're not the Navy, but from our perspective, it seems like, strategically, it makes sense to put (a carrier) here, and also, it would provide a strong impetus for the state's economy," Tollefson said.

He said the anticipated spring announcement at least gives some certainty to when the basing decision will be made "because up until this point it was unknown."

Inouye acknowledges the strategic advantage of forward basing a carrier in either Guam or Hawai'i, but said both would be costly.

One estimate placed the cost at $5 billion for infrastructure and other improvements in Guam, and $2.2 billion to move a flattop to Hawai'i. The cost would be less at Puget Sound, Inouye said.

"You have to be realistic. If you don't have the money, you can't have (a carrier in either Hawai'i or Guam)," Inouye said. He also said "in today's war, with all the high technology of communications and satellites and such, the odds of being caught unaware and unprepared is rather nil."

With that early warning, a carrier could be dispatched and be en route quickly from a more distant port, he said.

But John Pike, director of military think tank GlobalSecurity.org, said the nightmare scenario is a Chinese naval exercise that turns into an invasion of Taiwan with the installation of a new government in a few days.

"I think the concern of the war-fighting community has to be that you want to be able to get into play (with aircraft carriers) before that happens," he said.

Of the five carriers in the Pacific, two are based in San Diego, and one each is in Bremerton and Everett, Wash. Another is in Yokosuka, Japan.

The Navy in February said it intended to keep at least six aircraft carriers in the Pacific over the next two decades under a defense roadmap called the Quadrennial Defense Review. The Carl Vinson will be the sixth.

The key advantage of basing a carrier in Hawai'i or Guam would be the shortened sailing time. Ship travel time to the Taiwan Strait from Pearl Harbor at 30 knots is 5.9 days, 1.9 days from Guam, 8.2 days from San Diego and 7.3 days from Everett, Wash.

"I think as a practical matter, if the reason you are moving carriers to the Pacific is because you are concerned about threats there, it isn't logical to put more carriers in San Diego as opposed to putting them in Hawai'i," said Loren Thompson, a defense analyst with the Lexington Institute in Virginia.

But that practicality is just one consideration among many, including cost for placement, infrastructure, quality of life, to what degree the public rolls out the welcome mat, and political clout.

Cost seems to have taken priority amid tightening defense budgets. Some members of Congress have complained that shipbuilding cuts have shrunk the U.S. Navy fleet from 341 ships in 2001 to about 280 today.

Inouye said his impression is that Guam also would be too expensive, "because you would have to establish almost a brand-new infrastructure there."

About 8,000 Marines will be moved to Guam from Okinawa by 2012, and Andersen Air Force Base is being built up.

Thompson said Guam as a location for the Carl Vinson is a "nonstarter."

U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie, D-Hawai'i, said an aircraft carrier might be a hard fit for Hawai'i.

"It's easy to talk about an aircraft carrier as if it suddenly appears here with no consequences or implications for everyone," he said.

Kalaeloa was one of several airfields looked at for aircraft carrier air-wing training, but Abercrombie wants to move forward with housing and rail transit there.

Billions of dollars would have to be appropriated for infrastructure improvements with a carrier in Hawai'i, he said.

"We're talking about schools, we're talking about housing, we're talking about transportation," Abercrombie said. "They (the Navy) will have to come in late to the process and accommodate themselves to the rail transit project."

Christine Hanson, a spokeswoman for Democratic U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee of Washington state, said Bremerton has capacity for an additional aircraft carrier.

"The infrastructure is there for dealing with the ship and for the most part, dealing with the crew and their families who would be coming," she said.

Rachel Laing, a spokeswoman for the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce, is fairly blunt about the Carl Vinson. "We want it," she said.

Pete Litrenta, who's with the chamber and also is executive director of the San Diego Ship Repair Association, said San Diego had four aircraft carriers at one time.

What the city hopes to demonstrate to the Navy is that it makes the most sense for the carrier operationally, with factors like training range proximity for the air wing, maintenance availability, and ability to work closely with Marines on amphibious training.

"Obviously, Hawai'i is closer, and Guam is even closer to areas of operation. The geography works against San Diego in that regard, but we feel it's more than overcome by all those other things."

Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com.