To ensure that O'ahu's homes and businesses have reliable energy without brownouts or blackouts, Hawaiian Electric Co. must construct — as quickly as possible, but no later than 2009 — the proposed 100-megawatt generating plant at Campbell Industrial Park.

Fortunately, this plant will burn naphtha, a fuel that is produced in surplus in Hawai'i, so no new oil imports are required. This new plant also can convert to biofuels or hydrogen when they are available and economical.

This could be the last power-generating plant built in Hawai'i that uses nonrenewable fossil fuel. And other existing plants in the state that generate power with fossil fuel may be modernized and retrofitted so that Hawai'i can ultimately convert to all renewable energy.

HECO's total generation capacity on O'ahu is now 1,669 megawatts. Record peak demand last October was 1,327 megawatts. The margin is slim, given the increased housing development and new demands for air conditioning, new appliances and overall increasing energy demands.

A 10- to 20-year conversion period will likely be required for the full transition from traditional to renewable energy to get under way. This will require integration of these two sources over a couple decades and will necessitate extraordinary levels of coordination and management of capacity, and perhaps billions of dollars in new investment.

Fortunately, Hawai'i is a rare place that has every known renewable energy source under development in experimental projects. These include wind, solar (passive and photovoltaics), hydropower, ethanol, geothermal, biomass, biofuels, hydrogen fuel cells, deep-ocean cooling and wave energy.

To ensure energy reliability, Hawai'i must accelerate the production of all of these alternatives. Doing so, particularly with biofuels from the production of agriculture, could revive the sugarcane industry in Hawai'i. Lester Brown of the World Watch Institute estimates that sugarcane is the highest value converter of any agricultural crop to biofuels (7 to 1).

Hawaiian Electric now provides 8 percent of electricity from renewables, about four times the national average. Hawaiian Electric has been and continues to be one of the leading U.S. utilities pioneering renewable energy. However, it is now essential for Hawai'i's energy reliability to further accelerate the commercial development of renewable energy using every state or federal incentive available. In addition, all Hawai'i residents, agencies and organizations must maximize the conservation of energy. This is the best-value return, requiring the shortest and least cost implementation.

More efficient use of energy is also essential. This includes new technology as well as equipment changes: long-lasting light bulbs, time management systems for energy use, glazed windows, insulation, "green" building materials, more energy-efficient building designs, energy-saving building codes, incentives for using less energy at peak use times. Many energy-efficient adaptations are cost-benefit investments that provide a significant return on investment, often within only a few years, by reducing the use and cost of energy in homes and buildings.

Transportation is the single largest user of nonrenewable energy — over 60 percent — in Hawai'i and the nation.

While the public debate on mass transit is under way on O'ahu, this may take years to resolve and construct. Circumstances require urgent changes as the oil supply decreases, prices increase and the escalating price of oil ripples through the economy, increasing the cost of everything. New initiatives are necessary to reduce oil transportation (jet fuel, diesel and gas). Energy-saving transportation initiatives will likely include increased bus transit, multipassenger express commuter lanes, car and van pools, staggered work and education hours, telecommuting, voluntary driving reductions, perhaps ride-sharing one day a week, and use of sustainable fuels such as ethanol and others as soon as these are available.

The cost of jet fuel for the airlines has increased from about 7 percent of operations to more than 25 percent of operations in the past few months. This will soon be passed along in higher ticket prices, affecting tourism in the near future, as will similar increases in cargo transportation, which will increase the cost of nearly everything in Hawai'i. It's unavoidable, given the realities of the past years of the oil-based economy.

As oil supplies decrease and prices increase, the cost will be passed on through the wholesale and retail economy to each of us. In a bidding war for oil and food, Hawai'i will not have much leverage because we are not a major market.

Our food supply is also vulnerable because it is dependent on imports arriving weekly, biweekly and monthly to provide nearly all the food for Hawai'i's 1.2 million residents and more than 200,000 tourists who are here throughout much of the year.

The state Department of Agriculture estimates that Hawai'i imports $3 billion worth of food every year (70 percent). Hawai'i could grow every kind of food that doesn't need the freeze of more temperate weather.

Redirected use of land and water and cooperation of the food distribution networks would allow Hawai'i to reduce its imported food dependency by half or maybe more over a couple of decades, creating a new $1 billion-plus internal market for local entrepreneurs.

These two areas — imported fuel and food — offer new large import substitution markets for local production. Today, Hawai'i imports 90 percent of its oil — about $3 billion annually and about 70 percent of its food — about $3 billion annually. Some of this $6 billion in cash outflow could be redirected internally. Any part of $6 billion redirected internally would provide a huge internal market opportunity for hundreds, perhaps thousands, of local entrepreneurs. Every dollar of this $6 billion that could be internally invested in local fuel and food production and local sales would multiply through the local economy at least two times. There's considerable incentive to overcome the barriers and make this happen.

If Hawai'i could reduce fuel and food imports by $1 billion over the next 10 to 20 years, we would reduce our vulnerability, contribute to our own economic diversification and lessen our impact, albeit small, on the U.S. and international oil demands. We would not only become part of the global solution, but also make Hawai'i more self-reliant.

There are few places more vulnerable right now than Hawai'i, with more than 90 percent dependency on imported oil and 70 percent dependency on imported food. Hawai'i is one of the few places that could significantly reduce these vital imports by local renewable energy development and increased locally grown food production.

Recent events should have convinced us that no one is coming to save us in Hawai'i. If there is a hurricane, tsunami, earthquake or oil shortage that disrupts delivery of fuel and/or food, it's prudent to assume that, initially at least, for several days or weeks, we will be on our own.

We could deny these realities and hope for the best, accepting the inevitable. We could also deceive ourselves into believing that the current national government is competently prepared with prevention and response strategies and is genuinely concerned about us. They are not and will not likely be in the foreseeable future. With several trillion dollars national debt — 30 percent of which is dependent upon foreign government central banks buying U.S. Treasury bonds — and with about $600 billion current accounts deficit, the federal government will have to either make budget cuts across the board to avoid accelerating inflation and a recession, or raise taxes. Either way, there will be some economic adjustments that will likely slow the economy.

The recent Base Realignment and Closure Commission threat to the Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard shows us how dependent we are on Sen. Daniel Inouye's power and influence and how vulnerable Hawai'i would be if he were no longer on duty. It's time to take new local initiatives, while he is still in Washington, to help move Hawai'i toward more self-reliance in fuel and food to lessen our vulnerability.

Hawai'i has the opportunity to turn two of our biggest challenges — fuel and food — into two of our biggest economic successes over the next 20 years.

Mike Fitzgerald is president and CEO of Enterprise Hono-lulu. He is co-founder and chairman of the Hawaii Energy Reliability Committee and a co-founder and member of the Hawaii Alternative Energy Development Council. Adm. Robert Kihune is chairman of the Economic Development Alliance of Hawaii and a member of the Hawaii Alternative Energy Development Council. They wrote this commentary for The Advertiser.