The National Weather Service is forecasting a slight chance that winter in Hawai'i this year will be warmer and wetter than normal.

But that may not mean much in terms of helping Hawai'i residents plan, since the statistical likelihood of warm and wet is small and since there isn't all that much variability in Hawaiian climate generally, said Jim Weyman, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

Much of the central U.S. Mainland also is predicted to have a warmer-than-usual winter, but there, too, it's a small effect.

"Even though the average temperature over the three-month winter season is forecast to be above normal in much of the country, there still will be bouts of winter weather with cold temperatures and frozen precipitation (on the Mainland)," said NOAA chief Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr.

El Nino and La Nina climate effects should not play a role in the winter weather in the Islands, since ocean conditions are at normal levels, reflecting neither the warm Nino or cool Nina equatorial water temperatures, the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration said. The neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next three to six months, according to the weather service.

Reach Jan TenBruggencate at jant@honoluluadvertiser.com.