Enrollment in public schools has shrunk by 7,819 students, or 4.1 percent, since peaking in 1997-98 and will decline by almost 4,000 more in the next five years, state Department of Education projections show.

The downward trend parallels an overall decrease in the state's population of school-age children as well as a drop in births, and is a powerful indicator of how rapidly the Hawai'i community is aging.

Enrollment this year stands at 181,355, compared with the 1997 peak of 189,174. Enrollment is down in all areas except Leeward O'ahu, where new housing developments in 'Ewa and Kapolei have drawn many young families. Enrollment this year had been projected to be 182,449.

The largest decreases this year were in the Windward district, which showed a loss of 2.4 percent, or 414 students; Maui district, down 1.7 percent, or 362 students; and Kaua'i district, down 2.8 percent, or 281 students.

While enrollment losses may help reduce crowding in some schools, they can also have a negative effect, with schools facing losses of teachers and money.

Queen Ka'ahumanu Elementary School on Kina'u Street has lost about 175 students since 2002, and with it has come the fear of losing its vice principal.

"Our enrollment started at 800 seven years ago and was down to 501 when I first came aboard a year ago," principal Glen Miyasato said. "Since then, we've gained a significant number. But at an elementary school, 550 is like a magic number. That's when an elementary school receives a vice principal. And we were in danger of losing it."

When enrollment grew back slightly this year, to 557, Miyasato breathed a sigh of relief.

But because of the increase, he had to scramble to find two more teachers after school began for the fall, because of the unpredictability of enrollment in his area of predominantly rental housing.

On the plus side, he was able to use extra rooms to offer more support for students having difficulty, including providing a tutoring and counseling center for students having a hard time adjusting, as well as another special-education classroom.

At Haha'ione Elementary School, a 75-student decline in enrollment over the past four years has meant the loss of two teachers this year. With enrollment at 436 this year, the school may lose some public funding once a "weighted student formula" goes into effect.

"We're going to have to cut personnel," said principal Cindy Giorgis. "We've just had a principal's meeting (in the Honolulu district) talking about what kind of personnel we're going to have to cut."

But Giorgis has also found that her school's lower enrollment is enabling her to offer a broader after-school lineup because classrooms are available for the "bridges" program that provides remedial help in math and reading for struggling students, as well as other programs.

"I have all this space available and can offer enriching options for kids after school — Japanese, drama, creative movement, Kids Invent," said Giorgis. "The fact that I have a few extra rooms does make this easier to do."

While individual schools might lose personnel, an overall enrollment decrease will not mean a reduction in the department's budget.

"Even if the district itself may be decreasing (in enrollment), there may still be schools at or above capacity," said Clyde Igarashi, decision support specialist for the DOE in charge of projections. "And there still are facilities concerns."

Enrollment drops also have little impact on the soaring costs of serving Hawai'i's students with special-education needs. According to the 2004 superintendent's report, 52 percent of Hawai'i public school students have special needs, including 32 percent who are economically disadvantaged.

However, enrollment projections do help the department determine where new schools will be needed, and the six-year projection strategy is especially important because the process of building a new school takes several years, said Igarashi.

Projections done by the department are based on a number of variables, including the birth rate, planned housing developments, military deployment, census data, estimated in- and out-migration, as well as trends over the past six years.

While public school enrollment is declining, private school enrollment has been increasing, as has that of charter schools. Over the past year, charter schools saw an 8.3 percent increase in enrollment, or about 429 students. Charter school enrollment is included in public school totals.

The department will begin sending principals data on their projected school enrollments this month, but principals will have the opportunity to disagree with department figures depending on what trends they may see in their own areas.

These numbers are important to the schools because they will help determine what additional money they could potentially receive under a proposed new funding formula in which schools receive money according to the numbers and kinds of students they serve. The Board of Education is still wrestling with how to implement such a formula.