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COMMENTARY A glimmer of hope for a peaceful Iraq By Trudy Rubin |
In a week when Iraqi terrorists blew up hotels in Amman, Jordan, and the president denounced his Iraq critics, the real Iraq news was elsewhere.
The man who may prove crucial to facilitating an eventual American exit moved around Washington with minimal media notice. He is Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi, a Shiite politician and the leading candidate to become Iraq's prime minister after the Dec. 15 elections. (The controversial Ahmed Chalabi, now a deputy prime minister, also was in Washington making his case, though his political star has dimmed.)
Mahdi's ability to forge an Iraqi political consensus that could undercut the insurgency may be the key to calming his country. Most top U.S. military officers and civilian officials now agree that stability in Iraq can't be won by military means but will depend on the skill of Iraq's leaders. The December elections will be particularly important because, after a series of hapless interim administrations, voters will choose a permanent government.
So the fate of America's Iraq venture may well hang on the ability of Mahdi to pull his country together.
Mahdi is a fascinating mix — a French-trained economist who speaks fluent English and was a Baathist and a Maoist in his youth. He abandoned Baathist politics early and became an anti-Saddam exile. He is now a leader of SCIRI (the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), the largest Shiite political party in parliament, which is headed by a cleric and has close ties to Iran. But the urbane Mahdi puts forward a moderate program and says Iraq can be friends both with Tehran and Washington.
I sat down with Mahdi in Washington, where his schedule included meetings with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Cheney. Here's what he says about the two issues of most importance to Iraqis and us:
"We know Iraq won't work without Shia, Kurds and Sunnis," Mahdi insists. Sunnis boycotted January elections and Shiites won a majority. But Mahdi says Shiites worked hard to bring Sunnis into the subsequent political process. He predicts a huge Sunni turnout in December.
And Shiites agreed that the constitution, ratified last month, would be open for amendment, in response to Sunni unhappiness over many provisions.
Because Sunnis fear domination by majority Shiites, the political system can't just operate by majority rule, Mahdi says. "We need another principle: consensus." That means leaders of the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds have to reach agreement on basic principles to avoid conflict. "Consensus will isolate the Sunnis from terrorists," he says.
Sunnis also are frightened by the concept of federalism embraced by Shiites. The latter envision having their own huge federal state in southern Iraq, including nine of the country's 18 provinces, where much of Iraq's oil is located. That would "balance" a Kurdish federal state in the north. Sunnis fear such a formula would split Iraq apart, leaving them in a desert "Sunnistan" without oil.
Mahdi supports formation of a large Shiite state, but invites Sunnis to put other ideas on the table. "Everything is open," he says. He also welcomes recent efforts by the Arab League — whose members are mostly Sunni Arab countries — to host a regional conference that would promote Iraqi reconciliation.
But Mahdi warns that no consensus is possible if Sunnis keep supporting an insurgency that uses car bombs and murder. He says, "You can't dialogue by car bombs." His own brother was assassinated two weeks ago.
In May 2003, Mahdi told me the Shiites made a strategic decision to accept the U.S. invasion as the only way to oust Saddam, even though they opposed occupation. But, he says, "we don't have the intention of calling for a timetable (for U.S. withdrawal) before we are sure this won't create a security vacuum."
He says the next Iraqi government will work out the details of a status-of-forces agreement by the end of 2006. Most important, Iraqis want U.S. forces to withdraw from their cities as soon as Iraqi forces can replace them.
"We want a separation between the U.S. troops and the population," Mahdi says. "Secretary Rumsfeld agreed with me that this is something we can work on."
Mahdi also hopes that the United States will listen more closely to Iraqis. He says any form of Iraqi democracy must combine secular with religious and traditional elements in ways that Americans will find hard to understand, but that are necessary for Iraqis.
"There has to be better discussion between Americans and Iraqis. You must respect our views," he insists.
From Mahdi's words, one can at least imagine a Shiite-Sunni-Kurd consensus that would undercut insurgents and allow U.S. troops to start drawing down in 2006. No guarantees. But a glimmer of hope.
