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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Tuesday, December 6, 2005

Don't wait for storm, hurricane expert says

By James Gonser
Advertiser Urban Honolulu Writer

As Hawai'i's 2005 hurricane season comes to an end, hurricane experts from around the world are meeting at the University of Hawai'i at Manoa for a four-day conference to review this year's storm activity and share information.

James Weyman, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said despite the major hurricane events in the Atlantic Ocean this year, Hawai'i had only three tropical storm systems, below the annual average of 4.5 systems recorded over the past 30 years.

"When the Atlantic is very active, the Pacific is usually less active," Weyman said. "It reverses during El Nino years."

Weyman said it is only a matter of time before another hurricane hits the state. The last hurricane to hit the Islands, Iniki, slammed Kaua'i in 1992, an El Ni–o year. Iniki caused billions of dollars worth of damage, Weyman said.

El Ninos are marked by warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific. Such warming can affect weather worldwide, ranging from drought in Indonesia, Australia and Africa to storms in California and floods elsewhere. El Nino conditions tend to produce more and stronger hurricanes in Hawai'i waters.

Hawai'i's hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Technical Coordination Conference includes representatives from Japan, New Zealand, Australia, India, Fiji and Le Reunion, an island group off the coast of eastern Africa.

The group is working together to review operational procedures, standardize information, discuss use of Web sites and verification of forecasts and to present new research findings.

"The decisions we will make will impact billions of people worldwide," Weyman said. "It is really global and technical coordination. How things are being done worldwide and how we can better standardize issues."

Max Mayfield, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, said 2005 was the busiest hurricane season on record in the Atlantic, with 26 named storms including Katrina, which claimed more than 1,300 lives and caused more property damage than any storm in U.S. history.

Mayfield said there is no reason a major hurricane cannot hit Honolulu. "The battle against hurricanes is fought outside the hurricane season," Mayfield said. "You can't wait for that hurricane to come knocking on your door before you get prepared."

Mayfield said he hopes Hawai'i residents take the lessons from this hurricane season to heart.

"One of the biggest lessons learned from the Atlantic through the past two hurricane seasons is still a message of preparedness," Mayfield said. "It comes down to that individual taking the personal responsibility to create their own hurricane plan and knowing exactly what to do before the next hurricane comes."

The conference is sponsored by the Tropical Cyclone Pregramme, part of the World Meteorological Organization's World Weather Watch, which establishes national and regional coordinated systems.

Reach James Gonser at jgonser@honoluluadvertiser.com.