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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, September 3, 2006

Case is right: Main game is in primary

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Columnist

One of the more interesting comments out of that big debate between Sen. Daniel Akaka and Rep. Ed Case last week came, almost as an aside, from Case.

Since this is a Democratic state, it is assumed that a Democrat will be elected to the Senate.

Tell that to the followers of the late Hiram Fong, who managed to make a very nice career in the U.S. Senate, thank you, as a Republican from Hawai'i.

Or to former state Sen. Pat Saiki, also a Republican, who had little trouble getting sent to Congress carrying the GOP banner.

But still, the theory remains that the winner of a Democratic primary is the presumptive winner of any election.

Case clearly had that idea in mind during his forum with Akaka the other night.

The election, Case noted, "will be decided in the primary, in which everyone can vote."

This may well be the truth in political reality, but technically Case was wrong.

The victor in the Case-Akaka battle will have to go up against someone, or several someones, in the general.

There are no fewer than six Republicans and a Libertarian and a nonpartisan competing for the job.

Now, let's not be too cute. None of the other candidates have anything near the name recognition, political experience, institutional backing or track record of Case and Akaka.

And the only non-Democratic candidate with even a bit of name recognition and political backing (from Gov. Linda Lingle, among others) was Jerry Coffee, who had to drop out for health reasons.

So Case is right. The election, for all intents and purposes, will be decided in the primary.

Case's point, however, was not to diminish the contributions and value of candidates such as Mark Beatty, Jay Friedheim, Steve Tataii, Chas Collins, Edward Pirkowski, Lloyd Mallan and Kaui Amsterdam.

His real point was that as much as voters might love or be intrigued by the other candidates, they have to realize the game is in the primary. What he was saying was that to make a real difference, one has to participate in the Democratic primary.

In a way, it was odd that Case did not hammer this point home harder. Clearly, his best chance depends on independents and nominal Republicans voting in the Democratic primary.

But voting history in Hawai'i suggests this is no easy task.

People tend to stick to the politics they know, particularly in the primary. There are many examples of voters turning out to vote in a particular primary, not out out of any kind of political calculation, but simply because this is the party they know and this is the ballot they traditionally take.

So, Case may be correct. But changing voter behavior and habits is no easy thing.

There's no guarantee people will see things differently this year. And if they do, it will take more than an off-hand comment at a political debate to make them do so.

Reach Jerry Burris at jburris@honoluluadvertiser.com. Read his daily blog at blogs.honoluluadvertiser.com.